Reply #165: another skeptical voice

[SnowGoose]

for what it's worth - I just don't believe the draft will happen any time in the near future. As for some big attack on the US, that would be bad for Bush.

Everyone, would at some point think, "gee... if we didn't have 150,000 troops in Iraq, we wouldn't need this draft. Sod Iraq. Let's bring the troops home to defend our own soil."

If we really were to have a draft, I think a foreign event would be a more likely scenario than an attack at home. The specific thing I could imagine happening is some event that threatened world oil supplies - say a coup in Saudi Arabia, leaving a fiercely anti-western regime in place, or a devastating attack on some oil tanker port.

In this case, we'd get the Europeans and Asians on board, since their economies are dependent on petroleum just like ours. It would be easy to ram a resolution through the UN, and maybe even muster up some big multinational alliance.

Additionally, we could sustain ourselves for a little while on the strategic petroleum reserve, and Bush would remind everyone how he kept filling that tank up, even at the extremely high recent prices, and boy oh boy, isn't he smart? We wouldn't be able to pull the troops out of Iraq, because it would exacerbate the problem of critical shortages of oil.

Again, my money is on no draft, but if it were to happen, this is my best guess how it might.

edited for $#@% spelling