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Reply #5: Logically [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
nancyharris Donating Member (637 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
5. Logically
The ONLY thing that matters is the number of people sampled, not the SIZE of the underlying population

This makes no sense. With exit polls, what matters is WHERE the polls are taken. Exit polls are not universal. They are targeted at key precincts that the pollsters believe will provide an accurate sample for the whole state. If the demographics in those particular precincts has changed since the last election (or if the pollsters choice of targeted precincts is not accurate) that inaccuracy will be reflected in the polling.

Just how many precincts were exit polled in NH, OH, FL CO and WV? And which precincts were polled? MOST IMPORTANTLY, how closely does the exit polling for a particular precinct reflect the actual vote for that precinct? The answer to these questions will reveal the true story behind the exit polling discrepancies.
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