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Reply #164: Your math is Wrong [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 02:10 PM
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164. Your math is Wrong
By taking rounded off numbers and multiplying them multiple times you are increasing rounding error significantly. If you look at the exit poll numbers from your link this is what we see:

Men 46%
Women 54%

Bush among Men 53%
Bush among Women 50%
Kerry among Men 46%
Kerry among Women 49%

So, in order to minimize the rounding error, we do this:

Bush vote percentage: (0.46 * 53) + (0.54 * 50) = 51.38%
Kerry vote percentage: (0.46 * 46) + (0.54 * 49) = 47.62%

Exit Poll vote versus Recorded Result:

Bush: 51.38% vs. 52.15%
Kerry: 47.62% vs. 47.02%

I'd say that's a very close match, well within the margin of error.

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