Analysis of the polling data vs actual data and voting systems supports the hypothesis that evoting may be to blame in the discrepancies. Nevada has evoting but with verified receipts. In that state the Exit Polling matches the actual results within .1% accuracy. However for other swing states Bush has unexplainable leads.
I'm still compiling data. Please help me determine what voting methods are being used in swing states and which are evoting without audit trails. Post your data under the individual state responses below.
Kerry is well ahead in exit polls, but still losing the counts. WTH is going on?
Kerry is well ahead in Exit Polling in Ohio. We're being screwed.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/index.html
Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%
Dem: 91/8 Kerry 38%
Rep: 94/6 Bush 37%
Ind: 60/39 Kerry 24%
Here is exit polling for Florida (3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush)http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/FL/P/00/index.html
Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%
Dem: 86/13 Kerry 38%
Rep: 92/7 Bush 39%
Ind: 60/38 Kerry 23%
3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush
2065388 Women (54% of total)
1759405 Men (46% of total)
Bush leads male vote by 5% of M = 87970
Kerry leads female vote by 4% of M = 82615
That means Bush is ahead by just 5355 votes in exit polling in FL.
Another odd thing is that there are more Reps then Dems in Florida by 1%, which is not expected. Either there are more voting Republicans in FL than Democrats, a first and not matching known statistics, or more Republicans were exit polled than Democrats. If the exit poll is off by just 1% that's a difference of 382479 more voters who are Democracts.
The results being posted however show Bush ahead 326,000 actual votes. This is simply not possible from the exit polling numbers. Even skewed for a 5% higher Republican vs. Democrat turnout from 2000, it doesn't add up.
Kerry leads Female voters by 7%, Bush leads male voters by 7%. Male vs. Female voter turnout is 47% M, 53% F. That means Kerry statistically has a 7% edge in exit polling in Wisconsin.
Actual results however show Bush ahead by 1%, an unexplained difference of 8%.
Just checked, same pattern. Kerry leads in the exit polls by a clear margin, but is still behind in the reported results. This state is even closer. Actual is just 1% favor of Bush. Exit polls show Kerry with a wider margin. Women favored Kerry by 8% here out of 52% of total voters. Men favored Bush by just 6% out of 48% of total voters. Actual reported results don't match exit polling AT ALL in Nevada.
*** KERRY leads by 1.3% in exit polls in NV ***
Can someone determine what percentage of precincts are DIEBOLD or electronic voting machines in these swing states? Of those compare the expected voting results from Male vs. Female against the results reported by electronic vs. non-electronic voting places.
My HYPOTHESIS is we will find a discrepancy in the electronic systems vs. the exit polls and the non-electronic systems.