Reply #17: It's not supported by the numbers in other states

[Awsi Dooger]

Kerry got less than 45% in Arkansas. Only 54% in Hawaii. Only 42% in Louisiana. Just 46% in Missouri. Less than 53% in New Jersey. Just 43% in West Virginia. Many more examples.

I suppose Freeman could claim Kerry won 53 or 54% nationally. Someone told me Freeman estimates Kerry won by 5 to 7 million votes nationwide.

IMO, that's wacko. Numbers in states not in dispute scream that Kerry fared worse than Gore. In fact, Kerry surpassed Gore primarily in states where Nader was not a much of a factor in '04, plus states like Virginia and Colorado that have been trending Democratic since 2000.

If Freeman thinks Kerry earned 3-5% more than Gore did, it should show up in the undisputed states, like the ones in my first paragraph of this post. Instead, those numbers are below what Gore received.

The problem in Nevada was 9/11. Our big hotels were feared to be an obvious target for subsequent terrorist attacks, especially after high profile reports of Atta and the other 9/11 hijackers meeting in Las Vegas months before 9/11. Whenever I quizzed locals, especially women, before the election, national security was very high on the priority list and the hotels mentioned specifically. Also, in 2000 Yucca Mountain was a vulnerable issue that Gore could have exploited. By 2004 Bush had already set that in motion and I didn't sense the fury that was anticipated nationwide. From 2002 to 2004 I posted those themes repeatedly on DU, that national security was underrated and Yucca overrated in terms of Nevada 2004. I walk the Strip every day, in and out of sportsbooks, and get a good feel for the consensus opinion, from locals and tourists, whether I agree with them or not.