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Reply #220: Yes, that was as far as I intended the analogy to go. [View All]

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eomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-21-11 05:32 AM
Response to Reply #219
220. Yes, that was as far as I intended the analogy to go.
The rational expectations school created a model. Their next step was to check whether that model worked. It didn't. They then threw in some tweaks to force it to work in some dimensions but there is no guarantee that it will then work in other dimensions.

Bazant created a model. His next step would be to check whether that model works. He has no way to do that. So he is stuck with a model that may be interesting but with no way to check against "actual econometrics" whether it does or doesn't work.

And I don't think the parts of the model I'm objecting to are standard-issue. If they are then Bazant (or someone on his behalf) should be able to point to lots of cases where they've been used before. Specifically, when in the past has a large section of a building falling onto a lower section of a building been assumed to be a rigid cube. What was the justification for that assumption or how was it checked against the real world to see whether it works. Or, alternatively, when was such an assumption made in some other engineering problem that can be demonstrated to be functionally equivalent to this problem.

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