You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #215: fair enough -- but there is a big problem in the OP [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » September 11 Donate to DU
OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-16-11 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #214
215. fair enough -- but there is a big problem in the OP
eomer, whom I like a lot, wrote in part:

Once you realize that Bazant's math is based on gross simplifications, all persuasive power is sucked out of it (if you're paying attention).


I guess that might make sense for a suitable definition of "gross," but the truth is that even back-of-the-envelope analyses can be legitimately highly persuasive -- or unpersuasive -- to people who know how to evaluate them.

It would make about as much sense to write, "Once you realize that the physics of climate change is based on gross simplifications, all persuasive power is sucked out of it (if you're paying attention)." The fact is: really simple climate models predict warming on average; really complicated models (albeit with severe simplifications) predict warming on average; we're actually observing warming on average; it takes some heroism worthy of a better cause to conclude that the models are utter crap, and it should be downright embarrassing to infer that from the mere fact that they use "gross simplifications."
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » September 11 Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC