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Reply #60: Bazant assumes the worst case, not best. [View All]

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eomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-07-09 09:20 AM
Response to Reply #44
60. Bazant assumes the worst case, not best.
So it is not a limiting case, or not a useful one anyway.

He assumes that:
  1. the upper part of the tower remains intact as a rigid block,
  2. all of the mass of the upper part therefore is brought to bear on the lower part,
  3. all the mass of the lower part stays within the footprint after the crushing collapse passes by it and is therefore brought to bear on the lower part,
  4. all the momentum imparted by gravity stays on board with the crushing effect rather than shooting off outside of it.

    These assumptions are all grossly untrue. These assumptions all make the model skew toward collapse.

    A skewed model produces a useful limiting case only if you skew your inputs in favor of one outcome and then see the model produce the opposite one.

    By skewing these inputs in a direction that made the model more likely to collapse and then seeing the model collapse, what the skewing did in reality was to render the model meaningless and irrelevant - we already knew that we could make a model collapse if we skewed it far enough away from physical reality in the direction that would make it collapse.

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