Reply #43: wishful thinking

[Shaktimaan]

In the likelihood that Palestinian extremists did decide to fire rockets into Israel, a stable Palestinian government with everything to lose by not stamping down on an attack on Israel should be in a position to put a stop to such attacks.

True. But we can draw a parallel between this hypothetical future scenario and the current history of the PA following the Oslo Accords. Israel gave the Palestinians a lot of help at that time. They helped provide resources for the PA's establishment. They pulled out of the West Bank militarily, ceding police and administrative duties to the PA. They ended checkpoints. They provided incentives for Israelis to hire Palestinian workers and participate in trade with the territories. In short, they gave the PA every opportunity to practice self-determination.

The settlements, Jerusalem, right-of-return, all that could be figured out later. You know the old saw about the Middle East... "If success is defined as being nothing short of a ratified treaty then we are destined to fail forever. Rather, success is attained every day that war is prevented, or even just delayed for a little while."

The PA had every reason to prevent renewed attacks against Israel, they had everything to lose by allowing them. Yet no action was taken against Hamas when they denounced Oslo and stepped up suicide attacks inside the green line. Consider that for a moment. This happened right away. Before Israel began increasing settlement populations, before military reprisals against Palestinian cities, etc. Hamas used the advantages of greater mobility and freedom given to them under Oslo to better organize and carry out terrorist attacks, which greatly increased.

Look at this statement by Ziyad Abu'Ein of Fatah during an interview on Alam TV July 4, 2006.

"The Oslo Accords were not what the Palestinian people dreamt of. The dream of the Palestinian people is the return, self-determination, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and the liberation of its land. However, there would have been no resistance in Palestine if not for Oslo. It was Oslo that strongly embraced the Palestinian resistance. All the occupied territories - and I was one of the activists in the first and second Intifadas, and I was arrested by Israel several times... If not for Oslo, there would have been no resistance. Throughout the occupied territories, we could not move a single pistol from one place to another. If not for Oslo, the weapons we got through Oslo, and if not for the "A" areas of the Palestinian Authority, if not for the training, the camps, the protection provided by Oslo, and if not for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners through Oslo - this Palestinian resistance could not have carried out this great Palestinian Intifada, with which we confronted the Israeli occupation."

Palestinian resistance is often seen as being justified by the harsh system imposed by the occupation, particularly to Westerners. But it is not the cause of it. Not by any stretch of the imagination. It is the other way around. The hallmarks of oppression under the occupation such as checkpoints or the wall are a direct result of Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians. You can go as far back as you like and at each new era in this long conflict, from the very first Arab Uprising, every single time you will notice that Palestinian violence predates the Israeli security measures that are so often used as justification for resistance. And every time Israel has relaxed those restrictions Palestinians have used it as an opportunity to increase the level of violence. So forgive me if I am skeptical of the notion that the intifada will vanish once Israel ends the occupation. There will always be an excuse to continue fighting. Just look at Shebaa Farms.