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Reply #7: Yep. And "Overshoot" as well. Here's the result of a model I built. [View All]

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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-19-07 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. Yep. And "Overshoot" as well. Here's the result of a model I built.
Edited on Thu Apr-19-07 10:22 AM by GliderGuider
I've been messing with simplistic population models for the last few weeks, to try and get a handle on what it would take to bring the human population down to a sustainable level in the time we have left.

My starting assumptions are that a sustainable population is one billion people, and that we have 75 years to get there.

It's instantly obvious that with a current net population growth of 75 million per year, simply lowering the birth rate won't do it. Even cutting the birth rate to zero for the next generation wouldn't do it.

For my model I postulated gradually declining birth rates due to global economic depression, falling from their current level of 1.1% per annum to 0.4% per annum in 75 years. I further assumed a rising then falling excess death rate starting off slowly, rising faster due to the collapse of the world economy, then tapering off again as things stabilized. The excess death rate peaked at 5% per annum before the middle of the century.

Based on that model, it turns out we would need an average excess death rate of 100 million per year every year for the next 75 years to reduce our numbers to 1 billion by 2082. The peak excess death rate would happen in about 30 years, and would be about and 250 million that year. To put this in perspective, WWII caused an excess death rate of 10 million per year for only six years.

Given this, it's not hard to see why population control is the untouchable elephant in the room - the problem we're in is simply too big for humane or even rational solutions. It's also not hard to see why some people are beginning to grasp the inevitability of a human die-off.
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