Reply #16: I see this as more of a tipping point.

[tinrobot]

I could go into why clock speeds didn't increase as expected, but it doesn't really apply to this issue. People are still buying lots of computers despite the fact that they don't have 10Ghz processors. This is because we already passed the tipping point where mass adoption of computers happened.

The issue is not so much about the advance of technology, but rate of adoption. When rates of adoption increase, a tipping point happens where people suddenly shift from one technology to another. This happened with autos in the early 20th century, and with computers late in the century. We could also look at video's shift from VHS -> DVD -> Netflix or audio's shift from vinyl -> CD -> MP3. All of these had a tipping point where the technology was too good to resist. When that happened, people switched fairly quickly.

I suspect solar will also hit a tipping point. Kurzweil's exponential growth rates aside, all that is really needed is for solar technology to be too good to resist. Once that threshold is crossed, people will adopt it very quickly.