Reply #6: While not as specific as you might like

[OKIsItJustMe]

Here's an interesting graph:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/Baseline/crops.htm

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Domestic corn use grows throughout the projection period, largely reflecting increases in corn used in the production of ethanol. Global economic growth underlies increases in U.S. corn exports.

• Most ethanol production in the United States currently uses corn as the feedstock, with close to a third of total corn use expected to go to ethanol production in 2009/10. The tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cents-per-gallon tariff on imported fuel ethanol are assumed to remain in effect through the end of the projection period.


• While expansion in the ethanol industry continues, smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projected over the next 10 years. This result reflects only moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States, limited potential for further market penetration of ethanol into the E10 (10-percent ethanol blend) market (the blend wall), and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol blend) market. In the latter years of the projections, production of ethanol for fuel accounts for 34-35 percent of total corn use and corn-based ethanol production exceeds 9 percent of annual gasoline consumption.


• Feed and residual use of corn bottoms out in the initial years due to reduced meat production and increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol production. Feed use rises through the rest of the projections as meat production picks up and growth in the availability of distillers grains slows with the reduced pace of corn-based ethanol expansion.


• Food and industrial use of corn (other than for ethanol production) is projected to rise over the next decade. Use of corn for high fructose corn syrup, glucose, and dextrose increases at less than half the rate of population gain, limited by consumer dietary concerns and other changes in tastes and preferences. Other food uses of corn are also projected to rise more slowly than the increase in population. Starch use of corn responds to industrial demand, rebounding as the U.S. economy recovers and then continuing to rise faster than population through the rest of the projections.


• U.S. corn exports rise in response to stronger global demand for feed grains to support growth in meat production. Nonetheless, the U.S. share of global corn trade drops below 60 percent by the end of the projections.

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