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Reply #10: You are looking in the wrong end of the telescope... [View All]

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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-06-09 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. You are looking in the wrong end of the telescope...
When you focus exclusively on what PHEVs can't do without looking at what they CAN do you are performing an invalid analysis if your goal is to understand the technology in relation to the prediction in the OP.

I don't think I've seen anyone crunch the numbers in this particular way because most forecasts are correlating market penetration with GHG emission reductions, however, since we are concerned about petroleum there is a fairly simple way to look at it using a known metric:
What sort of change in the national passenger fleet mile/gallon rating do you think will have to be achieved to make the prediction in the OP true?

As I said, I haven't seen a study that looks at that particular point, but given the known use patterns of US drivers, the PHEV can and will alter the average national mpg rating dramatically. Even with no further improvements in energy density (and some extremely large improvements (8-10X) are already in the pipeline) the ability of the *average* driver to do more than half their *annual* driving on battery electric power is going to have a profound impact on petroleum consumption.

I'll also challenge your assumption regarding the usefulness of PHEVs with a 40 mile range to people in rural areas. I live in a rural area and we could do more than 90% of our driving on the predicted battery only range expected in the Volt. We have two vehicles, and if we replaced only one it would reduce our gasoline powered miles driven by over 70% without compromising utility in the slightest.

Your 30% figure is not credible.

I do agree that, as described in your example, there will be considerable economically driven restructuring of the way things are done day to day by many people, but the overall impact described in the OP is going to come first and foremost from the more efficient technology of electric drive.
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