Thorough analysis of the "Clark Scenario"

[ignatiusr]

This analysis is overly long. It's something I wrote for myself, to get on paper what I've been thinking. You're welcome to just peruse the following and then read my summary scenarios at the bottom. I'd like to see what others think about the way the race will unfold.

I've looked at all the available polls right now, and IMHO, there are only two scenarios left in the primary race. The conventional wisdom, which subscribes to the Dean scenario (and which is admittedly a likely scenario), and the Clark scenario, which relies on several variables, but of which, if these variables turn in a direction favorable to Clark, put him in a fairly strong position to win the nomination. Here's my rationale:

First, before you look at the primary polls, the question you have to ask is, how many of these candidates will have already dropped out of the race by now, and where will their support go?

There are three serious candidates who may drop out of the race relatively early in the primary season:

1) Kerry

After NH, Kerry is finished. The only remaining question is, will Kerry drop out before or after the primary? The current NH situation looks like this:

Dean 45 (38)
Undecided 15 (21)
Kerry 13 (17)
Clark 11 (7)
Gephardt 5 (4)

If Kerry drops out after the race, it will mean that Clark beat him by a fair margin, and that Dean won BIG. If Kerry drops out before the race, Clark will assume the position in the eyes of the media as "the" Dean oppoonent, at least in NH. This probably means that Clark would finish a strong second, perhaps somewhere between 20-30%, and Dean would finish in the late 30s or very early 40s. I reason that Clark will do better than Kerry once he assumes 2nd place because he will be a new face, rising in the polls rather than plummeting in them. This should give him the momentum in NH that Kerry hasn't been able to find. Regardless, a second for Clark in NH would garner a lot of press coverage, and water down Dean's momentum going into Feb. 3rd.

And where will Kerry's numbers go? Some will go to Dean, others to Clark, because of the military/national security cred. It's also possible that Kerry will have some words for Dean after his departure, which could encourage his supporters to look elsewhere.

2) and 3) Gephardt and Lieberman

Gephardt will drop out if he loses Iowa, no question. Lieberman will, God willing, drop out before the primaries, if his numbers continue to fade. This scenario assumes that he does, or at least assumes that he will have become so irrelevant by this time that his supporters (many of whom are supporting him simply because they know him more than any other candidate, which will no longer be the case once the massive spotlight hits the primaries in mid-January) will have realized they need to support a viable candidate.

So, where would Gephardt and Lieberman's support go? Gephardt is a centrist, labor candidate. While Dean has some edge in labor, he is not appealing to many centrist Democrats. With this in mind, my guess is the Gephardt supporters will go slightly to Dean, because of the labor relation, but mostly to whatever centrist alternative has arisen. Now, I don't believe that Clark is as moderate as Gephardt or Dean, but I do think he is enough so, especially in the eyes of the media, to become annointed the centrist alternative, if he continues with his current momentum. Absolutely zero Lieberman supporters will go to Dean, however. Considering the type of voter who currently supports Lieberman, my guess is that they would be inclined to go with whatever seemingly centrist candidate that gets the most press coverage. This will be Clark.

With that in mind, here are the other important polls that are currently available:

South Carolina
Dean 11
Lieberman 9
Clark 9
Edwards 7
Al Sharpton 7
Gephardt 7

This poll is from Zogby, which I don't trust very much. Aside from Dean being in the lead, Lieberman has somehow arisen to second place at 9%, even besting Edwards. Unless there has been some kind of Lieberman campaign magic that I missed over the last few weeks, this poll may be a little off. Regardless, what it shows is a statistical tie for 1st. In fact, 6 candidates are all statistically close to 1st place in this poll. Clark is beginning a massive ad blitz here, similar to the one in NH, which obviously helped him substantially. Given the ad's heavy emphasis on the military, they should go over even better in SC. Gephardt and Lieberman's numbers here are a combined 16%. Clark trails by two.

Arizona
AZ: 10/09-10/16:
Dean 19
Clark 14
Kerry 9
Lieberman 9
Gephardt 5

Clark/Dean very close. Clark, however, is also beginning a massive ad blitz in this state. Lieberman, Gephardt, and Kerry numbers equal 23%.

Delaware
DE: 11/??-11/??
Lieberman 19
Dean 15
Gephardt 12
Clark 10
Kerry 8
Sharpton 4
Edwards 3

Take out Lieberman/Gephardt, you have Dean leading Clark by 5% Gephardt, Lieberman, and Kerry's combined percentage is 39%

Oklahoma
11/20-11/23:
Edwards 17
Sharpton 12
Dean 11
Clark 10
Lieberman 9
Gephardt 8
Braun 6
Kerry 5
Kucinich 1

This poll is an odd one. Edwards and Sharpton, 1st and 2nd? The person who provided the poll, Cal Pol Junkie, described it as a "recently discovered" poll, meaning it must not have been released to the wide media. Polls before this one showed Clark in the lead by around 4%. Anyway, this is the 3rd state where Clark is beginning his ad blitz. Gephardt, Lieberman, and Kerry are a combined 22%.

Michigan
MI: 10/06-10/09
Dean 21
Clark 15
Gephardt 13
Kerry 13
Lieberman 12
Braun 4
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 2
Edwards 1

May or may not play a factor in deciding the nominee. Another Dean/Clark race. Dean leads by 6, but with Gephardt, Lieberman= 25%, and Kerry= 13% there's nearly 40% to be potentially dispersed.

Florida
Undecided 31
Dean 16
Clark 15
Lieberman 15
Gephardt 8.5
Kerry 6

Probably not a factor in the primary race. However, it's an important state, so it's interesting to look at. Dean and Clark statistically tied for first (MOE 5.3%), and once again, the three proceeding candidates are also the three most likely to drop out.
Their combined percentage equals nearly 30%.

So, here are the secnarios:

The Dean scenario:
- Either Lieberman, Kerry, and Gephardt wait so long to drop out that their supporters are no longer attainable by competing candidates, or Dean has already gained so much momentum by the time they drop out that supporters are assuming Dean's victory is a foregone conclusion.

The Clark scenario:
- Clark wins second in NH, gains a lot of media buzz. Kerry, Lieberman and/or Gephardt drop out, or become irrelevant. Former supporters crowd around the "anti-Dean," which Clark has confirmed by his second in NH and strong polling numbers in the Feb. 3rd states. The strong showing in the Feb. 3rd states comes in part from the momentum produced by his current massive ad buy in three of those states, SC, OK, and AZ.

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I left Edwards out of this analysis, assuming that Clark will be anointed the alternative. Edwards will be his only competition for this title, but he simply isn't doing well enough in the majority of the states to take it from Clark.

I'd put the possibility of the Dean scenario at 65-70%, and the Clark at 30-35%. I should also point out that I still think it's possible, albeit unlikley, that Clark will surge based on his own merits. That's where his momentum is currently coming from, and if it doesn't stop and continues to pick up steam, he could become a real contender, regardless of who drops out. But this is the most practical scenario, IMO, and it takes into account a lot of real situations that may materialize when the race begins.

Phew, If you've read this far, I don't know why :).

Anyway, I'm not saying that all three canidates will definitely drop out. I'm just exploring the implications of one or more of them doing so. What does everyone else think? Do you think Gephardt, Kerry, and/or Lieberman will drop out? And if so, when, and where will the majority of their points go?