Thoughts on the Senate

[mndemocrat_29]

The Senate looks much more winnable then the House, but will still be difficult to win back. However, I can't stand the idea of Congress being in Republican hands for another session, so we need to work on winning back these seats:

Open seats

Georgia
OK, this one looks almost impossible to win back. Sen. Zell Miller is retiring and this looks likely to go to either Rep. Johnny Isaakson or Rep. Mac Collins, both Republicans. This would be a Republican takeover, though considering Zell's voting record, it will seem like a holdover.

Illinois
However, Democrats seem assured to win back this seat. Sen. Fitzgerald is retiring and the Democrats look to be the winners in this state that's trending further left. State Sen. Barack Obama, Maria Pappas, and Comptroller Dan Hynes are the frontrunners for the nomination.

South Carolina
This would probably be a Republican takeover, if the Democrats didn't have such a wonderful candidate in State Supt. Inez Tenenbaum. The Republicans look to have a fractured and divisive primary in the wings, though For. Gov. David Beasley could be the clear-the-field candidate.

North Carolina
Erskine Bowles nearly won this seat in 2002 against superstar candidate Elizabeth Dole. If Sen. Edwards were on the ticket, this would probably help Bowles against Rep. Burr. I'm going out on a limb and predicting this as being 2004's closest race, and it could go either way.

Louisiana
Democrats have scored many major victories here as of late, with reelecting a senator, winning a House seat, and electing a Democratic governor. Rep. Chris John, For. Atty. Gen. Richard Ieyoub, and Treasurer Kennedy are all looking at the race, and will probably face off against Rep. David Vitter in a runoff. This should go to the Democrats, especially with Sen. Breaux helping them (though it will more than likely be Breaux protege John).

Florida
Sec. Mel Martinez has the blessing of the Bushs, but For. Rep. Bill McCollum and Speaker Johnny Byrd both will be strong in the primaries. The Democrats have Education Commissioner Betty Castor is leading Rep. Peter Deutsch for the primaries. Considering how well female Democrats have been doing in the South lately, Castor could best Martinez, especially if the national Democrat is running strong.

Oklahoma
Rep. Brad Carson is a strong, strong campaigner who is running against Kirk Humphreys, a mayor (mayors usually have a tough time winning statewide). Oklahoma just elected a Democratic governor and could follow suit by electing a Democratic senator.

Vulnerable Incumbents

Alaska
Normally, a Republican wouldn't have any difficulty winning in Alaska, but Sen. Lisa Murkowski was appointed by her father, an unpopuolar governor, and has made little impact in Alaska. She's running against a popular two-term governor, Tony Knowles. Murkowski's one advantage is that Bush will win Alaska by at least twenty points. This could be close, but Knowles will definitely run strong.

Pennsylvania
This state strongly elected a Democrat in 2002 as governor and has a strong Democrat running for the Senate, Rep. Joe Hoeffel. Rep. Pat Toomey is running a tough race against Sen. Specter, and either nominee could end up damaged by the primary. Hoeffel could pull this off, making it even easier to take Pennsylvania's other senate seat in 2006.

Missouri
This seat will be close. Missouri is a good opportunity for the presidential candidates (even those people who want to write off the South would admit that Missouri is a golden opportunity). Missouri races are always close, and Nancy Farmer could be the upset of this year's Senate cycle.

South Dakota
Sen. Tom Daschle is a high profile Democrat in a Republican state. He has a very strong competitor in For. Rep. John Thune, who nearly beat Sen. Tim Johnson in 2002. Both sides will gain tons of money, though Daschle's clout will be weighing heavily on South Dakotans minds.