Reply #12: My Response..

[TruthIsAll]

The polls I referenced were way beyond the MOE range of 6%; others were also greater than 6%, if not as high. Even if the deviations are 6%, the analysis and results would be the same. If anything, my results are conservative in that a cut-off MOE deviation range of 6% (-3% to +3%) is assumed; since the deviation threshold were higher, the odds of fraud are greater than that calculated.

One correction should be noted. The NH poll numbers I reference were from the original SCOOP Nov. 2002 article when I first did the analysis. These poll results are no longer listed. I cannot account for this. In any case, even if we eliminate NH, and compute the probability that 3 out of 8 would fall outside the MOE, the odds are still very low: 1 out of 1,382.

Note the case: (3 states outside the MOE, out of 8 states)

N.........3........4.......5.............6
8 1,382 43,040 2,077,263 159,672,547
10 695 15,557 502,435 23,234,010
13 326 5,156 111,666 3,240,553
16 186 2,284 37,326 791,105
20 106 1,006 12,432 194,355
25 63 469 4,466 52,763
30 43 263 2,047 19,497
34 33 182 1,235 10,208