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Reply #189: You're welcome [View All]

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Timbuk3 Donating Member (727 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-03 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #188
189. You're welcome
As I said earlier, I work for a company that has a statistician on site. He was on vacation M-W of this week, and has been very busy since he got back. I've already spoken to him, and we're going to look at the numbers when we both have time.

I trust this guy, but we've never discussed politics. I have no intention of "giving away" where I stand on the issue. I'm just going to say, "There are those who think that..."

I expect to get an unbiased opinion from a real statistician about whether or not there is anything unusual about the vote count in the California recall election.

Don't misunderstand what I'm looking at, btw. I've never doubted that Davis was unpopular, or that name-recognition meant more than qualifications in the short time the replacements had to campaign. (I'll never forget that several stations had "arnie marathons" the weekend he announced, either, but that's another issue.)

Davis was recalled, and Arnie won, fair and square. Imagine that: A Democrat with an (R) after his name won an election in California. (Pro choice, anti-gun, pro-environment, pro-gay rights, and he claims to be a REPUBLICAN???)

I'm wondering if this wasn't a "test run" for siphoning votes from popular candidates to less popular candidates (a la Pat Buchannon in West Palm Beach.) It was an IDEAL situation to try out the system (of cheating) and looking for bugs with so many candidates, and no real reason to question the results. If I wanted to cheat on the 2004 elections it's EXACTLY the way I'd "practice" for it.

But, as it stands right now, I have no proof that anything unusual happened in the CA recall election, and I'm making no claim. I'll wait until an expert examines the data, and let ya'all know.

But, in the meantime, if there's a bona fide statistician out there who can run the numbers and make a rational case for, OR against, vote tampering with mystery machines, I'd like to hear it. The link to the data is in a prior post (and I promised to stop, or at least slow the shameless self-promotion of my non-profit web site.) If you dl the data, please take a look at the graph near cell G85, which is a plot of the percent of local vote, by candidate. The huge spikes for the touch screen data *could* be explained by the low number of counties (with large populations) in that data set. Or, it could be something more sinister. I'm not qualified to say, but I know someone who is...
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