Wilma: Dramatic Change in Forecast Track?

[blitzen]

per Jeff Masters: likely to crash into Yucatan and weaken considerably before reaching FL

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Where will Wilma go?
There has been a major shift in the model guidance with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs. All the models now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. This is very bad news for Mexico, and means that Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.

However, this is very good news for Florida. An encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula will certainly cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and would make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm that passes south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings.