Reply #13: Oh, give it a rest.

[Colorado Blue]

First place, in 1996, none of these subsequent events could have been predicted: the offer of Palestinian statehood, put together by Clinton and the Israelis, offered to and refused by Arafat; the subsequent resurrection of Ariel Sharon's career, the 2nd intifada with its great loss of life - both Arab and Israeli.

And, Arafat died and the withdrawal from the Occupied Territories is well underway. The Saudis attacked, although the Clinton Administration had desperately tried to warn the Bush Administration about the dangers posed by al Qaeda.

And certainly, Al Gore's loss of the 2000 election may have been hoped for by the Republicans but it was certainly not predictable in 1996.

This is now 2005. Events have moved far beyond any such musings.

In any case, strategic planning is a part of government and academia as well as major industry - especially the oil industry.

The US runs war colleges for general staff, whose curricula would blow you away. They deal with threat analyses of all kinds, including major attacks by and with WMD's - including nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. They strategize and maneouvre and run variations through computers, play war games involving real people.

Given the geostrategic importance of the Middle East, its oil reserves which we desperately need, the fact that in its current incarnation, it was carved up out of the old Ottoman Empire by French and British fiat, it is not surprising that people would be interested in it and would speculate on possibilities.

The instability of the region is of GLOBAL concern. This impacts everybody here in the states. The price of oil has skyrocketed and this is impacting every aspect of the global economy. To the extent that friction with Israel has been a focal point for terrorism, it is in OUR interest that solutions to the conflict be discussed.

Meanwhile, Syria isn't going anyplace. However, interested PROGRESSIVES should be interested in the Ba'ath dictatorship and its impact on the people of Syria and its neighbors, including Lebanon, JOrdan, Turkey and Iraq, as well as Israel.