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Reply #309: States with electronic voting machines gave Bush mysterious 5% advantage [View All]

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JTodd Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-12-04 05:32 PM
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309. States with electronic voting machines gave Bush mysterious 5% advantage
The exit polls did not "get it wrong". Exit polls are almost never wrong. So reliable are the surveys that actually tap voters as they leave the polling places that they are used as guides to the relative honesty of elections all over the world. To screw up one exit poll is unheard of. To miss six of them is incredible. It boggles the imagination how pollsters could be that incompetent and invites speculation that more than honest error was at play here.

EVERY STATE that had E-Voting but no paper trails had an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results. In EVERY STATE that had paper ballots or audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error. From a statistical perspective, this may be indicative of vote rigging, because the likelihood of this happenning by chance is extremely low. A study of 16 states by a former MIT mathematics professor places the likelihood at 1 in 50,000.

In 2003 Wally O'Dell CEO of Diebold, said in a letter to Ohio Republican officials that he was committed, "to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the President". Diebold is the company which makes electronic touch screen voting machines used in Ohio and other states. Ohio and Florida were two of the "swing" states critical to the 2004 election.

It has been alleged by statisticians, computer scientists, voters, voting rights organizations and others that the US Presidential Election of November 2004 was fraught with significant data irregularities and systematic flaws, both real and potential, which taken together indicate potential vote fraud. In many cases there were concerns as to whether votes were fairly, reliably, and accurately recorded and reported by the electronic machines involved.

Supporting these conclusions, here are bar graphs indicating the differentials between Exit Polls and Machine Tallies for nine e-voting and paper ballot states. The discrepancies appear to affect the e-voting states to a significantly greater degree than they affect the Paper Ballot states. Exit polling accurately predicted the results in most states with very little error. Where there were discrepancies, they were significant in the +5 percent range, and always favored Bush.

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