Reply #3: The only problem is that a statistical approach doesn't apply

[snowFLAKE]

To predict the outcome of The Election.

Simply because it is subject to forces that have not, indeed cannot, be incorporated into the polling data.

I will attempt a simple-minded analogy to explain. Let's say TIA has observed the route I take when driving home from work for the past four years. Based on these observations, he has seen that I take "Route A" 997 times and "Route B" 3 times. He or she therefore predicts that there is a 99.7% chance that I will take Route A on November 2, 2004. However, it turns out that on November 2, 2004 my spouse is returning from a journey and I must make a detour to the airport on my way home, thus taking "Route C."

I am sure that Rove & Co. will do everything they can - for example in the form of the much anticipated "October Surprise" - to make sure that "Route A" is not followed on election day. Whether they will be successful or not is hard to predict statistically - for instance, such a strategy didnt' work for Jimmy Carter and his attempt to rescue the Iran hostages. However, I suspect the chance of success is higher than 1-11% as projected by TIA.