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progdonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 02:33 AM
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12. depends on approval rating
I've been very concerned over the outcome of a possible terrorist attack this year. Will the country rally around Bush again? or will it call for his head? I think it all depends on his credibility at the time of the attack.

September 11th was seen by most to be a complete shock (who knew that a guy named Osama bin Laden wanted to attack the US? even Condi Rice didn't know...). Because of this, Americans rallied around the leader, believing that he had done (or would have done if intelligence existed) everything possible to protect Americans.

Now that we've had three years to catch bin Laden, fund First Responders, fund better counter-terrorism, etc., I think the American people will be less kind to Bush if another attack occurs; especially among those who accept that the Iraq war is nothing but a detour from the War on Terror. ("You had three years to go after al-Qaeda, but instead you invaded the country of al-Qaeda's enemy!")

That's not to say they'd call for his removal, though. If Bush has high approval ratings at the time of an attack, it's more likely Americans will be forgiving of him ("he did all he could"). Unfortunately for Bush, his ratings are in the gutter, and they have no hint of rising.

I predict that if another attack occurs, his base will became ten times more violent and hate-filled towards dissenters, but this will be counter-balanced by the left becoming ten times more adamant in his removal and a significant increase in Bush disapproval among moderates.

There is also the extra variable of the location of the attack and the death-toll, but I think what I said above would apply in most possible attacks.
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