Reply #113: 4:00 AM CDT NHC Hurr Rita & GOPA Report:

[GOPAgainstGW]

4:00AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
Hurricane Rita: Cat 4
Maximum Sustained Winds (MPH): 140 (D) -5
Wind Gusts To (MPH): 170
Moving Towards the Northwest at near 9 MPH. (D)
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 927 MB...27.37 Inches (I) (a)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 (I) miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
Located near Latitude 26.8 north...longitude 91.0 west, 290 miles
southeast of Galveston, Texas, 250 miles southeast of Cameron, Louisiana
------------
I=Increase, D=Decrease from last report
(a) NOAA Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

On this track Rita will be approaching the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts late today or tonight. Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

====GOPA Comments===
Rita’s eyewall has shown clear degradation the last 4 hours due to sheer on it northern side. The big story however is once again the computer track projections model. They reflect that eastern Texas, (and/or possible central Texas-secondary) could get severely hammered not once but twice by Rita causing significant flooding, property damage, and potential loss of life. All Galveston-Houston and southeast Texas residents remember tropical depression(TD) Allison, June 2001. In Houston, up to 31 inches of rain in 24 hours, 47 deaths, 10,000 eventually destroyed homes and $5 billion in damages. The most expense and destructive storm to ever hit Houston. More destructive than Hurricane Alicia’s direct hit in 1983. It was not the winds, it was the severe water level rises.

The bottom line is that Hurricane Rita continues to look extremely bad for Galveston-Houston and Southeast Texas based on current data. Stalled out or backtracking hurricanes/tropical storms/tropical depressions are SUBSTANTIALLY more dangerous than than a normal moving hurricane. This is what caused TD Allison’s trememdous destruction and caused Hurricane Mitch-Nov 1998 to be the most deadly hurricane since “The Great Hurricane of 1780” in the Caribbean with 22,000 estimated deaths.

On other matters, the evacuation of Houston continues to be another disaster/joke as to very severe traffic problems along with lack of gasoline, water and food. There is NO excuse for what has happened the last 24-36 hours and currently. Everyone is so sick of public officials press conferences and news coverage of what they are going to do, then it doesn’t get down, or worse, they are total lying and/or making outright fraudulent statements to the public. More later on this subject.

===NWC DISCUSSION-4:00AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005===

Rita is completing its eyewall replacement cycle this morning...as the last report from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft showed that the inner 15 n mi wide eye had dissipated and a single 33 n mi wide eye existed. Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb in the northeastern quadrant are 125-130 kt...which helps support an
initial intensity of 120 kt. The aircraft data showed that another wind maxima has formed about 60 n mi from the center...which might be the start of another outer eyewall. The latest central pressure reported by the aircraft is 927 mb.

Rawinsonde data at 00z indicates that the mid-level ridge is still present over Texas. This feature should move eastward during the next 24-48 hr...allowing the current northwestward motion to become more northerly. Track guidance is now clustered about a landfall on the upper texas coast in roughly 30 hr...with the model track being spread between San Luis pass and Sabine Pass. The forecast track up to landfall is essentially an update of the previous package. After landfall...the guidance become very divergent as high pressure build to the west and possibly north of Rita. Given the spread...the forecast track will call for little motion after 72 hr just as the previous forecast did. This stalling will pose a serious risk of very heavy rainfall well inland.

The intensity forecast is still problematic. Since Rita has completed the eyewall replacement cycle and is over the warm eddy of the loop current...there is a chance it could strengthen during the next 12 hr. After that...it should moved north of the eddy... Possibly start another eyewall cycle...and possibly experience increasing southerly shear. The intensity forecast thus calls for a slight increase in strength in 12 hr...followed by slight weakening. An alternative scenario is that Rita does not strengthen...and gradually weakens due to shear until landfall. This could happen if the shear reaches the 25 kt values forecast by the gfs and ships models.