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Reply #3: Public Policy Polling: "GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they're not going to vote for her..." [View All]

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MinM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-12 06:51 AM
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3. Public Policy Polling: "GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they're not going to vote for her..."
Poll: Akin still leads McCaskill after legitimate rape comment
By Laura E. Davis | The Ticket 7 hrs ago

A poll conducted and released on Monday found that U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, who's under fire for his comments about "legitimate rape," still has an edge over Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill in Missouri's Senate race.

Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based Democratic polling firm, has Akin leading McCaskill by one point, 44 percent to 43 percent. That's not much different from PPP's last poll of the race, which also found Akin ahead by one point, 45 percent to 44 percent.

But Akin's sustained lead doesn't mean Missouri voters agree with what the Republican candidate said. The poll found that 75 percent say Akin's comments were inappropriate, and 79 percent say they disagree with them.

In releasing the results, PPP concluded that "GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they're not going to vote for her no matter what their nominee does."

"This looks like it will be a closely contested race if Akin stays in," PPP President Dean Debnam said in a statement that came with the poll results.

Akin apologized for his comments on Monday but vowed to stay in the race in the face of criticism from his own party and some calls for him to quit, saying on Mike Huckabee's radio show "I'm not a quitter" and taking to Twitter to say that he's "in this race to win."

Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 07:54 AM PDT
PPPPTD: Public Policy Polling Performance to Date

by Red SoxFollow

Roughly two years after it came to light that Research 2000 appeared to be cooking their numbers, I think it's worth evaluating the performance thus far of Public Policy Polling (PPP) as they have taken over polling for dKos. The evaluation isn't any indictment of the ethics or business practices of PPP, but rather an attempt to determine whether PPP's numbers do accurately reflect the state of public opinion. Put more simply, I'd like to learn whether PPP has a "house effect" that favors Democrats and whether that needs to be considered when weighing PPP's results.

Nate Silver and others have documented a house effect and resulting bias in favor of Republican candidates on the part of Rasmussen Reports. Silver defines both as follows:

When I talk about a house effect, I mean what results a pollster shows relative to those of other polling firms. If everyone else shows the Republican Sharron Angle ahead by 3 points in Nevada and some other pollster comes along showing Harry Reid ahead by 5 points, that would be an 8-point Democratic-leaning house effect.

By bias, I mean how a pollsters results compared with the actual outcome of the election. In the example above since Mr. Reid won by about 5 points the pollster showing him winning by that margin would have an unbiased poll, even though it had a strong house effect. In contrast, the pollsters with Ms. Angle ahead would have a strong Republican-leaning bias, even though they hadnt had any house effect.

Put another way: house effects are what we look at before the election; bias is what we look at after the election...
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