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Reply #5: Lib Dem (3rd party) won't win... [View All]

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D-Notice Donating Member (820 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-05 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Lib Dem (3rd party) won't win...
Edited on Thu Apr-28-05 10:47 AM by english guy
as they'll have to increase their number of seats in Parliament by a factor of 6! They currently have 51 seats & need 323 to be in overall control - the best they hope for is a Hung Parliament with them being in coalition with Labour

1. It's unlikely Bliar'll lose his seat (Sedgefield in North-East England) as it's one of the safest ones that Labour have, i.e. it has one of the highest majorities that they have.

However, that's based on the 2001 election when he was still popular. On the down side, there's 15 different parties to choose from in that seat (inc. Tories, Lib Dems, a couple of anti-war Independents) which may split the vote & so Bliar will probably still get re-elected.

It's also v. unlikely that Labour won't be the biggest party - it's take a massive collapse in their vote, which isn't being signalled in the opinion polls.

2. It's unlikely that Labour'll sack Bliar, in a Thatcher style, unless next Thursday is a disaster for them i.e. winning with a majority in Parliament of under 50, or even a Hung Parliament - where no single party has overall control.

Even so, it'd involve Labour MPs being able to think for themselves, and, unfortunately, apart from the odd exception, e.g. Robin Cook & Cliare Short, it doesn't happen, as most Labour MPs are career-politicians & so won't do anything controversial.

PS. Don't worry about the spellings - us Limeys (as well as the Taffs, Jocks & Paddies who are also voting as it's the whole of the UK)) are used to you Yanks being illiterate! ;-)

If you want a more accurate view go here: Peter Snow's Swingometer(he's the BBC's political expert who does the statistics for every election night)
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