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Reply #5: I don't know if Gill will displace him, but McNerney is in a lot of trouble. [View All]

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Xithras Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-17-11 06:48 PM
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5. I don't know if Gill will displace him, but McNerney is in a lot of trouble.
McNerney is from Pleasanton, which is no longer even IN the district he represents. In fact, it's a good 30 minute drive from his longtime home to the CLOSEST point of the district he represents, and almost an hour drive to Stockton, which is its center. There were plenty of people in the Valley who were alredy grumbling about McNerney not representing that part of his district, and the talking heads are already starting their campaign to convince people that McNerney is a "Bay Area carpetbagger" who didn't even live in the district until he relocated a few months ago to satisfy the legal residency requirements.

McNerney barely won last time around, when his district included the more liberal Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara counties. Those areas have now been carved away from the district, leaving only the more conservative Central Valley. The Valley has long been a bastion of Republicans and Blue Dogs, which puts the more liberal McNerney at a distinct disadvantage.

IMHO, Gill is the perfect Republican candidate to run against, because a lot of people won't take him seriously...which gives McNerney a decent chance. If the Republicans run a more serious candidate, the Democrats in the 9th should really find a local primary challenger, because it's fairly unlikely that McNerney will survive a really serious Republican challenge. Republican David Harmer, who only lost by a hair last time around, could easily defeat him this time (luckily, Harmer has said he has no interest in running this time around). If the Republicans find another candidate with some respected local credentials, the local Democratic party will need to do some serious soul searching over a primary challenge or risk losing the district entirely.
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