Reply #129: August 5 2011: Europe throws in the towel (Automatic Earth)

[Ghost Dog]

The reason why, apart from the fact that there is no European facility endowed with sufficient financial or political means to save those two, is certainly also plainly in the sheer size of the debt and the risks that come with it. "Italy is the third-biggest bond market in the world..” Also, as per Charles Forelle in the Wall Street Journal, "its economy is 50% larger and its debt volume two-and-a-half times as big as Spain's". And "just this month, Italy must repay €36 billion in government debt. That is roughly what Greece will redeem this entire year." As well as: "The IMF estimates that Italy's gross financing needs—the amount of money it must borrow to repay maturing debt and cover deficits—will run between €340 billion and €380 billion annually over the next five years.

A chunk of that is short-term debt that Italy would likely still be able to roll over—Greece continues to sell short-term debt despite its bailout—but medium and long-term debt redemptions next year alone are around €200 billion. Italy's budget deficit will be around €50 billion."...

...It's like Paul Krugman or Robert Reich in the US: economists are people who cling to faith-based arguments, who in this case believe that if Europe or America would spend all of their children's money into a black hole of debt, those children would greatly benefit. It's all just conjecture, conveniently omitting facts like a few hundred trillion dollars in debt here and there. "If only we would spend, then we would certainly grow!". No, there is no such certainty.

What is certain is that the Economist list of European politicians in election trouble, José Sócrates, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and George Papandreou, will grow rapidly, and increasingly so. This would lead to additional problems in solving issues: whichever "leader" you talk to in a given country, may be gone tomorrow. Argentina in its early 2000's crisis had 5 different presidents in 2 months, or something along those lines.

That is the sort of volatility we will see come to Europe, in particular the Mediterranean, going forward. It'll be chaotic, volatile, and it will lead to a lot of societal unrest. But none of it will make the financial problems go away.

/... http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/08/august-5-2011-europe-throws-in-towel.html