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Reply #22: That's dividing the issue into proximate and ultimate causes [View All]

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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-11 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #17
22. That's dividing the issue into proximate and ultimate causes
There is also another perspective that such distinctions fit into: multi-linked chains of causation.
When the events are so tightly associated in cause and temporal occurrence they become essentially one event.

In such a situation, the ordered position of the dominoes isn't so important as the magnitude of the risk represented by the foreseeable failure of the entire chain.

If they get viewed independently rather than as being tightly linked, it greatly effects the sense of risk.
A 1% chance of 1% chance of a 1% chance is joint one chance in a million.

A 100% chance linked to a 100% chance resulting from a 1% chance is 1 chance in 100.

I sort of think the Japanese understood a major earthquake on the plate boundary would be linked to a tsunami that would flood and destroy parts of a plants positioned at and below sea-level. The videos of the Sendai area show large seawalls to protect from tsunami.

Those who made design decisions just considered the very low risk of a magnitude 9 earthquake during the life of their nuclear plants an acceptable risk. That has proven to be a costly decision.







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