Reply #184: Haven't been in since 2000. Started buying real property.

[mbperrin]

Rental units. Annual return over 200% year on year since 2000 without exception.

The only way you can make the yoyo effect real is to start in the mid-80s, but this ignores nearly a century of history before that.

You're still ignoring the real value rather than the nominal value by not deflating the numbers.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything in terms of what to do with your money. Studies show that day traders lose money 87% of the time. I reiterate, that if I am going to take steady losses, I want my cover charge comped, a couple of free drinks and a buffet coupon!

Gambling is not an investment. Investments have tangible results: factories are built, products are made, and so on. Turn of a card or combination of dominoes is not a product nor a service, and money changes hands.

Write this down, because I'm going to make a prediction for you: this market will hit 6000 by November and not rise above 10000 for at least two years after that. No theory is any good that can't be tested, so here's a test.

Of course, gambling does not involve anything but chance and house odds, so no predictions are possible there.

Write it down. I'll own it, and if I'm wrong, well, I'll be wrong. If I'm right, you'll have to give me credit for being a great guesser at least.

Right?