Reply #21: US Victory in Vietnam within sight !!!!

[BearSquirrel2]

Yeah, it was always 6 months away.

There are two double edged swords on the ground in Iraqnam right now. First is the fact that neighborhoods have become balkanized. Instead of being integrated, they've changed it to look more like Chicago ;-) Except it's a VERY heavily armed Chicago with deep religious emnity. The fact that Baghdad is now less integrated means that their is less value in being friendly. It reinforces the tribal mentality and devalues organization at the civil level, that is city and states instead of tribes.

The second long dagger is that they're literally bribing the militias not to fight. Well, this cannot continue forever. The true measure of "success" in a nation building effort is whether you can leave without the place falling apart. Well guess what??? As soon as we leave and stop paying tribute to the militias, they will be at it again. And now, they will be more heavily armed as we've financed the enemies of the Iraqi government.

This of course, is all just theater for the 2008 election. I was for the "surge" when John Kerry proposed it. In fact, I was for the "surge" when General Shinseki suggested it before any of this started. I was for the surge when Colin Powell stated it as part of his famous doctrine. Instead, Bush and Rumsfeld tried to low ball their Iraq effort for reasons of politics (no draft) and graft (more money for private contractors). The result was we got behind the 8-ball and allowed a domestic insurgency to form (it was never Al-Queda the Iraqi militias hate those guys by virtue of them behind both Arab and Wahhabi).

So now ... it's done. If the goal of victory is to leave a Democracy in our wake, we have lost. Their goal is to use Iraq as political theater for whatever the next election is. So in that context, I get "Mission Accomplished".