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Reply #35: Deja Vu All Over Again? [View All]

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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-22-06 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. Deja Vu All Over Again?
Edited on Fri Dec-22-06 07:18 PM by Ghost Dog

In a recent Russell Investment Group survey of 87 money managers, 86% said they expected stocks to rise in 2007, and just 12% said they expected the market to fall. Nearly a third expects stocks to rise 10% or more, while only 1% expects a 10% decline. "Underpinning managers' confidence is a growing conviction the Federal Reserve Board has achieved a soft landing for the U.S. economy," wrote Russell chief portfolio strategist Randy Lert.

I've seen on both CNBC and BloombergTV recently that 12 of 12 major wirehouse strategists are bullish on the stock market for 2007:

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Strategists at 12 of the biggest Wall Street firms agree that U.S. stocks will rally next year.

Unfortunately, the next sentence sums up the results of that kind of consensus:

The last year that happened was for 2001, when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 13 percent.


We are seeing a virtual rerun in terms of the rhetoric. Bulls vastly outnumber bears right now. It might be prudent to consider the contrarian point of view.

/... :+
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