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Reply #77: Benefit of the Doubt Creates Confusion [View All]

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pandemic_1918 Donating Member (679 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-05 09:26 AM
Response to Reply #76
77. Benefit of the Doubt Creates Confusion
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:34 AM by pandemic_1918
No, assuming that someone diagnosed will live simply creates confusion and misrepresents the facts. WHO and CDC did this with SARS. They generated an artificially low case fatality rate by counting newly diagnosed patients (most CFRs are calculated after the outcomes are known), and then when the hospitalized patients began to die the rate started to go up. But it was artificial. If you just counted known outcomes (deaths and discharges), the rate was steady.

It is even more absurd for Marburg in Angola because the there are no survivors. As the the infections spread and those coming into the hospital exceed those leaving (dead), the rate appears to come down.

The rate is supposed to indicate the chances of dying from the disease, and those chances do not decrease when people enter the hospital more quickly.

Right now the case fatality rate in Angola is at or near 100%. The true rate cannot fall without recovered patients, and at this time there are NO reported recoveries (maybe 1 in February - but not likely).
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