Black voters are, far and away, the most stable coalitional element in our study. Due to relatively low immigration and modest birth rates, black eligible voters have only grown at about the same pace as all voters. As a result, the rough size of this group has not changed significantly over time. Black voters have grown just slightly as a share of all voters (12 percent), Democratic voters (22 percent), and Republican voters (2 percent).

Current demographic trends suggest that this group will only grow marginally going into the future. Absent any shifts in turnout, black voters should make up an identical portion of voters, Democratic voters, and Republican voters in 2020. However, by 2036, black voters will make up 13 percent of all voters, 23 percent of Democratic voters, and 3 percent of Republican voters.