Their averages include all candidates, they don't eliminate anyone under the magic 15%.... (Reply #6)

In the discussion thread: Bernie Sanders holds "commanding lead" in New Hampshire, ahead among moderate and conservative voter [View all]

Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 02:10 PM

George II (67,782 posts)

6. Their averages include all candidates, they don't eliminate anyone under the magic 15%....

That's why they show Sanders with 10.5, Biden 5.6, Buttigieg 3.9, and Warren 3.4. But the last two won't get those 7.3 delegates combined, they'll be split by Sanders and Biden.

As of today:

Sanders 24.0
Biden 16.9
Warren 13.8
Buttigieg 12.9

Based on this, Sanders will get 5 of the statewide delegates, Biden 3, the others 0.
District-wise, Sanders will get about 9 or 10, Biden 6 or 7, the others 0.

That's 14-15 vs. 9-10.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Replies to this discussion thread

11 replies	Author	Time	Post
Bernie Sanders holds "commanding lead" in New Hampshire, ahead among moderate and conservative voter [View all]	OliverQ	Feb 2020	OP
SWEEEET!! Oh sorry, forgot NH doesnt count anymore, now that Bernie is crushin it there!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#1
And don't forget "Iowa is not very important" either.	bluewater	Feb 2020	#5
Course not, unless Joe wins...then it's the best win in political history & the race is over!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Feb 2020	#10
Kicked and recommended.	Uncle Joe	Feb 2020	#2
What constitutes a "commanding lead"? He'll get about 14 delegates, Biden about 10.	George II	Feb 2020	#3
538 projects Biden at about 6 delegates in NH	Tiggeroshii	Feb 2020	#4
Their averages include all candidates, they don't eliminate anyone under the magic 15%....	George II	Feb 2020	#6
Huh. Maybe so. Either way 538 also just has him leading by 4	Tiggeroshii	Feb 2020	#7
Numbers won't be final until after the votes, but there won't be a huge difference in delegates.....	George II	Feb 2020	#8
Sounds right	Tiggeroshii	Feb 2020	#9
Same as 2016. How'd that work out for him?	octoberlib	Feb 2020	#11

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