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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Response to wyldwolf (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 11:05 AM

13. Definitely worth the read.

 

I almost never recommend articles in this forum that are negative towards one of our candidates, but this one is worth reading.

Itís impossible to measure the weight all these liabilities would bear upon a Sanders candidacy. The quality of a candidate is not the only, or even the main, determinate of election outcomes, and having popular views is only one factor in the quality of a candidate. Still, political science has generally found that, all things being equal, the electorate tends to punish ideologically extreme candidates. You can peruse studies finding such a conclusion here, here, and here. Again, none of this says the more extreme candidate always loses, merely that extremism creates a handicap.

For obvious reasons, the Democratic Partyís left wing has always resisted this conclusion (as has the Republican Partyís right wing.) But Hillary Clintonís surprising defeat created an opportunity for the partyís left to promote an alternative theory for how the party could and should compete. It deemed Donald Trumpís win a sign that capitalism had created such distress that voters were now rejecting conventional politicians altogether and open to radical alternatives who might promise to smash the failing system. Indeed, by this reasoning, Democrats would do better, not worse, by nominating more left-wing candidates, who could distance themselves more credibly from the discredited Establishment.

Yet this theory has had two clear tests, and failed both of them spectacularly...


This is so important: Many academics who studied that election don't believe we lost in 2016 because we didn't move far left enough. For a long time I thought this was possibly the case. Now I no longer believe that.

The revolt of the Rust Belt: place and politics in the age of anger

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1468-4446.12328
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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LineReply Definitely worth the read.
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