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Fri Jun 28, 2019, 01:28 PM


DU Primaries Report, June 2019: Warren Takes Charge [View all]

Last edited Fri Jun 28, 2019, 04:09 PM - Edit history (2)

Welcome to the third monthly DU Primaries Report, based on the ongoing candidate preferences of DU members right here in the Democratic Primaries forum!

How the Candidate Rankings board works:
  • Displayed percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, so a candidate displayed at (for example) 10% will have an actual percentage in the range of 9.50% to 10.49%.

  • Candidates below 0.5% are displayed at 0%. Candidates with no supporters at all are marked with a dash.

  • For the purposes of the DU Primaries Report, only candidates who have an actual percentage of at least 1% are included.

Previously on the DU Primaries Report

May 2019: Steady As She Goes
April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!

Where the candidates stand this month

If last month's keyword was "stable," this month's keyword is "OMG, who strapped that rocket booster to Elizabeth Warren?"

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, June 2019

Warren was the true star on DU in the month of June. Ending May in third place with 10.73% support, just a fraction behind Kamala Harris, Warren quickly shot into second place on June 3, before blasting past Joe Biden and into first place on June 17. Since then her climb has remained steady, and she now resides comfortably in first place with 16.21% -- a meteoric rise indeed. Warren currently holds the highest level of support of any candidate since we began keeping track of these stats on March 22.

From where did Warren draw her support? Let's check the graph for June with Undecideds included:

Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided, June 2019

While the total number of members joining the Democratic Primaries forum jumped up by about 5% during June, the percentage of Undecideds decreased by 2.3 percentage points from 39.49% on June 3 to 37.19% today -- a new record low for Undecided support. This implies that Warren's rise was fueled largely by DU members getting into the Primaries forum and expressing their support for the first time, along with Undecideds switching to Warren.

The bigger picture

That's not the entire story though, as a look at the all-time graph will show us.

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, all-time

Clearly, there has been a large contingent of support for Joe Biden on DU since he officially announced his candidacy at the end of April. Biden remained strong and stable throughout May and June, weathering a number of real-world political difficulties, starting May at 13.81% and ending June at 13.83%. However, his percentage of support has been in slow decline ever since reaching a peak of 14.63% on May 31. The total number of Biden's supporters has not decreased -- he has simply not added enough new supporters during June to keep his percentage of support afloat.

As Biden represents the more, dare I say, establishment wing of the party, it's not surprising that many DUers have been searching for an alternative. Bernie Sanders has not caught fire the way he did in 2016, most likely because he is not the only alternative this time around (starting at 7.63% on March 22 he remains at 7.46% today with very little fluctuation). Pete Buttigieg looked like he could be the one for a while, peaking in second place at 11.57% on April 19, but it's been a long slow slide since then as he dipped below Sanders at the end of June to finish in fifth place at 7.31%.

These factors seem very much to have assisted Warren as the "non-Biden" choice, with some DUers moving to her from Sanders and particularly Buttigieg.

While the slow fall of Kamala Harris throughout May mirrored the slow rise of Biden, interestingly his drop in support throughout June does not seem to have brought her numbers back up, implying that there was also some movement from Biden to Warren. Harris remains comfortably in third place, but her percentage of support maintains its overall slow and steady decline from 10.91% at the beginning of June to 9.94% today. That said, her performance at last night's debate could swing things in her favor again, and if Biden drops, Harris will likely be the biggest beneficiary.

That debate thing

I think we may still be too close to the debates to properly log any changes in opinion -- these things usually take a day or two to shake out as the media declares winners and losers and the spin machines go into overdrive. Nevertheless, the graph may have started to indicate movement for a couple of candidates. Biden took a 0.34 percentage point dip over the past week, Buttigieg was down 0.32, and Beto O'Rourke slid 0.24. Time will tell if these dips are significant, or merely temporary.

The debates may also have made a small difference for some of the lower-tier candidates. Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar saw nice little bumps (Steve Bullock also picked up some new support this week despite not being in the debates), while Tulsi Gabbard, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang all climbed ever so slightly. John Hickenlooper saw a small decline. And despite being declared one of the stronger candidates in the first debate, Cory Booker's level of support did not change. All of these candidates remain below 1% actual support, mind you.

Last month's predictions

Last month I predicted that at least one pair of candidates would switch places (I was right!), but that overall the race wouldn't change much over the next 30 days (I was very wrong!).

Next month's predictions

Here's something fun:

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, polynomial trendlines

What does it mean? Hell if I know! I'm not Nate Silver.

That won't stop me from making some predictions. I think Elizabeth Warren has to peak at some point in July, but that doesn't mean she's going to to be giving up the number one spot any time soon. Expect her to remain very strong throughout the next month. Based on the positive coverage Kamala Harris got for her debate performance, I'd say she's injected some fresh life into her campaign and I wouldn't be surprised to see her start climbing again, particularly if she continues to mix it up with Joe Biden. If she ultimately gets the better of him, we may start to see signs of his vulnerability in July.

We'll be back with a another report on Monday, July 29 -- thanks for reading!
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Reply DU Primaries Report, June 2019: Warren Takes Charge [View all]
EarlG Jun 2019 OP
Shell_Seas Jun 2019 #1
DonViejo Jun 2019 #2
DownriverDem Jun 2019 #14
DonViejo Jun 2019 #15
Takket Jun 2019 #16
EarlG Jun 2019 #3
George II Jun 2019 #4
bluewater Jun 2019 #5
thesquanderer Jun 2019 #6
EarlG Jun 2019 #7
Lucid Dreamer Jun 2019 #12
cwydro Jun 2019 #18
thesquanderer Jun 2019 #19
FakeNoose Jun 2019 #8
cp Jun 2019 #9
Midwestocrat Jun 2019 #10
LovingA2andMI Jun 2019 #11
Eustace is Useful Jun 2019 #13
cwydro Jun 2019 #17