Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
2. There were numerous factors at play in 2016 that won't be in 2020.
Sat Mar 2, 2019, 09:28 PM
Mar 2019

Voter suppression and Russia's social media campaign will continue to be factors. Same with gerrymandering.

But, as I wrote the other day:

We had dominated PA, WI and MI ever since 1992 (winning by an average of 7+ points in those states). Then, in 2016, we had 2 historically unpopular candidates facing off (thus, turnout was somewhat suppressed and 3rd party voting was higher than normal). Clinton because millions had been conditioned to hate her over a period of 25 years, and Trump because he's a giant asshole. Clinton was our best option in 2016 and she'd be president if not for shenanigans, but let's not kid ourselves, she is hated by a large percentage of the population.

We had Comey's last minute announcement. We had a build-up of racial resentment (no, it wasn't economic anxiety) combined with a 'let's give an outsider a shot' attitude. We had Russia's foul play (aspects of which will remain an issue).

Now, Trump isn't new anymore. Newness carries a lot of weight, especially when the other party has been in power. He's a fully known quantity and he's despised. It's not just that well over 50% disapprove; after all, he had a low approval rating even when he was running in 2016. It's that close to 50% indicate strong disapproval, and that's significant (though still 50 points too low). We have an opportunity to nominate someone who will contrast (in just about every way) with Trump--to our benefit.

With Harris (and maybe Beto as VP), I think 360+ electoral votes would be within reach. I think we would see record-breaking Dem turnout.

Trump, if he doesn't resign, will be even more damaged than he is currently. Mueller, the SDNY and the Democratic-controlled House are only going to make Trump even less viable over the next 20 months.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»The ONLY way the racist p...»Reply #2