HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Groups » Bernie Sanders (Group) » Clinton Will Build Her Bi... » Reply #30

Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:18 AM

30. He may erode it some, but he won't overcome it. One needs to be realistic.

Hillary Clinton will have at least a 320 delegate lead over Bernie Sanders after tonight. Maybe even as high as 340.

There are 28 contests remaining (including Puerto Rico and D.C.) with about 2700 delegates remaining.

Let us say there is an average of 100 delegates per contest to be generous. There are actually less on average per state, but let's be as friendly to Senator Sanders as possible.

If Bernie was to win EVERY one of the 28 contests by a 55 to 45 margin, he would gain only about 280 delegates more than Hillary Clinton. That's 28 contests by an average of 10 points, and delegates, each. Not enough to overtake her. He would still fall at least 40 delegates short. It gets worse if one factors in the superdelegates, but we won't use them for now.

It is virtually impossible that he will win all 28. No one can sanely believe he will suddenly win 28 contests in a row.

More realistically, he may win 18 out of the remaining 28. Even then that's a stretch, but let's say it happens.

He would have to win those by at least 20 points, and Hillary win the other 10 by only a few points, to even come close to tying.

This scenario is extremely remote to the point of being near impossible. It has less than a 1 in a million chance of happening.

There are no more New Hampshires or Vermonts in the 28 contests where he will win by 20+ points.

It is difficult to see any state where in the more realistic scenario, that Senator Sanders will win by 20+ points.

If they split the remaining contests, 14 each, then we get to the point where Sanders' margins of victory will have to be 25 points or more in every contest he wins. That's even more improbable than winning 18 states by 20+ points.

Then you factor in the superdelegates. They will clearly side heavily with the frontrunner, like they did in 2008.

Now, one can say that the superdelegates can't deny the will of the people in the Democratic convention, but the will of the people is clearly with Secretary Clinton. She currently has almost 2 million more popular votes than Senator Sanders.

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 44 replies Author Time Post
mother earth Mar 2016 OP
Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #1
mother earth Mar 2016 #5
kath Mar 2016 #7
senz Mar 2016 #25
mother earth Mar 2016 #37
beltanefauve Mar 2016 #2
mother earth Mar 2016 #6
beltanefauve Mar 2016 #10
highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #3
DesertFlower Mar 2016 #4
mother earth Mar 2016 #8
GoldenSF Mar 2016 #9
Rosa Luxemburg Mar 2016 #11
renate Mar 2016 #17
yuiyoshida Mar 2016 #19
JeaneRaye Mar 2016 #12
Impedimentus Mar 2016 #13
Baadger Mar 2016 #14
Ccarmona Mar 2016 #15
chwaliszewski Mar 2016 #16
yuiyoshida Mar 2016 #18
Paulie Mar 2016 #20
yuiyoshida Mar 2016 #21
Paulie Mar 2016 #23
JDPriestly Mar 2016 #34
mother earth Mar 2016 #38
mithnanthy Mar 2016 #22
mother earth Mar 2016 #39
senz Mar 2016 #24
Legends303 Mar 2016 #26
mother earth Mar 2016 #40
AzDar Mar 2016 #27
NowSam Mar 2016 #28
hopemountain Mar 2016 #29
LineReply He may erode it some, but he won't overcome it. One needs to be realistic.
4lbs Mar 2016 #30
mother earth Mar 2016 #41
Post removed Mar 2016 #31
Ginbat Mar 2016 #32
Mister Ed Mar 2016 #35
JDPriestly Mar 2016 #33
mother earth Mar 2016 #42
in_cog_ni_to Mar 2016 #36
mother earth Mar 2016 #43
felix_numinous Mar 2016 #44
Please login to view edit histories.