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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: These are my primary season predictions: [View all]CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)59. The only states that matter, as far as polling goes...
...are the first couple of states that vote first in the primaries.
The states that have primaries later are not even plugged into the political scene yet. They are not paying attention. The campaigns don't have ads running in those states and the candidates are making little, if any, appearances in these spots.
We saw this happen with Obama. He was behind in every state, but as we moved on from state to state--the tide shifted and changed.
So yes--the first few states that vote really do reveal the most about who will win.
It's not just "two states". The two most important states right now--Iowa and NH.
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What a stunning exposition of political analysis that was... But.. Never Explain...
freshwest
Nov 2015
#67
I keep threatening to write a book on this season. I just might!! It has been a doozy!!
bravenak
Nov 2015
#32
"I see you working VERY hard to convey that meme." Exactly. You said it better than I did. (nt)
Electric Monk
Nov 2015
#23
I live in Iowa and I see a lot of Bernie signs but I haven't seen a single Clinton sign.
Luciferous
Nov 2015
#49
Bernie is not doing all that well in IA and most recent polls have Clinton up in NH.
Persondem
Nov 2015
#57
I know what you mean about giving O'malley respect. I just like him so damn much that I want
bravenak
Nov 2015
#66
Nooooo! I want Castro to be VP! Take THAT! Make MO'M the Commerce Secretary or I'll...
freshwest
Nov 2015
#72