Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Ira

(51 posts)
3. TPM is way too optimistic
Thu Aug 2, 2012, 02:33 PM
Aug 2012

There are 23 online Electoral College opinion maps, which average currently:
Obama 246
Romney 196
Tossups 96
TPM has a methodology that assigns a particular state to the candidate that is ahead in the polls on average by just 2%, whereas the margin of error is generally 3 or 4%. This produces a result that is very volatile, but is also very response to short term changes in the direction of the race.

That being said, Romney cannot seem to get off dead center. No map, including Fox News, Rasmussen, Real Clear Markets, Wall Street Journal or Washington Times, has assigned more than 206 electoral votes to Romney since these maps began to be published in January.
http://peanutgallerypolitical.blogspot.com/

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Electoral College Totals,...»Reply #3