2016 Postmortem

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)

36. So that's how they plan to keep Hill's numbers up.

Reply to Ichingcarpenter (Original post)

Mon Sep 21, 2015, 09:20 AM

Sep 2015

We should have known have known they'd even cheat in polling.

There's now more Millennials than Baby Boomers and Millennials do NOT support Hillary.

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Page 7 New CNN poll ..NOBODY POLLED UNDER 50yrs Old [View all] Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 OP

That's Hillarious! Erich Bloodaxe BSN Sep 2015 #1

You mean rpannier Sep 2015 #54

Absolutely Hillary-ous! peacebird Sep 2015 #81

Looks to me like non were under 65. Edited Snotcicles Sep 2015 #95

Over 65 AND didn't really care all that much about expanding OASDI, I assume. merrily Sep 2015 #129

It was of REGISTERED Democrats, and what it means is that Bernie supporters had better register to still_one Sep 2015 #119

We laugh as we register new voters, we laugh as we get voters to sign petitions to get Bernie on peacebird Sep 2015 #124

Well, this poll indicates that there were NOT a significant number of REGISTERED Bernie supporters still_one Sep 2015 #131

Or it could just simply mean that the polling firm PotatoChip Sep 2015 #206

Possible, or it can indicate that people under 50 are not registered to vote in meaningful numbers still_one Sep 2015 #207

I've been dumped over age and other criteria. They polled for what they wanted roguevalley Sep 2015 #218

No. You were screened out because they had already interviewed enough people like you. Gormy Cuss Sep 2015 #276

...^ that 840high Sep 2015 #256

that wasn't well written was it PatrynXX Sep 2015 #258

Then tell DWS she should have scheduled the first debate earlier than she did. merrily Sep 2015 #128

That is a different issue. The respective campaigns should be working to register as many voters as still_one Sep 2015 #134

Very related issues. She's depressing the vote, esp among Bernie's demographics. merrily Sep 2015 #141

No offense, but if that is the case it sure represents a shallowness and lack of maturity in the still_one Sep 2015 #144

Why would your incorrect statement about the voting public offend me? merrily Sep 2015 #155

No offense, but when the chair of the DNC suppresses the people's right to hear all candidates sabrina 1 Sep 2015 #245

not all registered dems..from the poll questionseverything Sep 2015 #165

True. The poll indicates that there are not enough registered voters under 50. I read that as still_one Sep 2015 #171

dems should always be registering peops to vote ,that much is true questionseverything Sep 2015 #174

Well considering that in quite a few states Aerows Sep 2015 #237

Which states require registration more than a year before an election? OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #241

To vote in the Democratic Primary. Aerows Sep 2015 #242

Your post said nothing about Primaries. OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #249

Oh well, OilemFirchen Aerows Sep 2015 #251

MSM cooking poll Robbins Sep 2015 #2

So many things about this season have been rigged against Bernie, it's disgusting. merrily Sep 2015 #132

I gotta a survey/begging this weekend from the DNC so I took Snotcicles Sep 2015 #153

Great, when you can do that on something asking for money. Or a call. merrily Sep 2015 #162

Yep you know they are going to look at it because they want credit card #'s. nt Snotcicles Sep 2015 #164

Also interesting is that everyone attended college. TexasTowelie Sep 2015 #3

Nobody under 50 would answer a number abelenkpe Sep 2015 #4

You know that because? Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #6

Probably only polled land-lines, I'm guessing, not cell phone users. nt 99th_Monkey Sep 2015 #46

Cell phones were included Honeylies Sep 2015 #66

Cool. I guessed wrong. my bad. nt 99th_Monkey Sep 2015 #68

I have been asked age and dropped because I am roguevalley Sep 2015 #76

Guess again...read page 5, first paragraph demwing Sep 2015 #67

OK. Thanks for clearing that up. nt 99th_Monkey Sep 2015 #69

About 40% were cell phones, according the linked PDF JHB Sep 2015 #80

Got it. Thanks. nt 99th_Monkey Sep 2015 #86

Should I tell you one more time passiveporcupine Sep 2015 #238

I will, but I haven't lately. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Sep 2015 #49

Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2015 #91

When election day comes Mr.Bill Sep 2015 #99

Personal experience IronLionZion Sep 2015 #244

And they included Biden. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #5

Some one w/polling expertise needs to translate this. MADem Sep 2015 #7

I took two semesters on polling for political science Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #8

It looks like they did interview people of all ages, not sure where the data is though. MADem Sep 2015 #18

N/A means not available or not applicable Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #29

good catch- 18-50 is half of the US adult population virtualobserver Sep 2015 #45

That's not exactly what N/A means in this case thesquanderer Sep 2015 #50

the #1 reason for that high of an error margin demwing Sep 2015 #70

Great Point On "The Aggregate" DallasNE Sep 2015 #148

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #287

I debunked it first ;-) thesquanderer Oct 2015 #289

In this situation it means that reporting the data sliced that finely would be irresponsible Gormy Cuss Sep 2015 #275

My guess is they got so few respondents that they couldn't get jeff47 Sep 2015 #74

They were used. thesquanderer Sep 2015 #133

And they shouldn't have been without a bigger sample. jeff47 Sep 2015 #139

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #280

Not worthless to some. zeemike Sep 2015 #61

Yes. Ed Suspicious Sep 2015 #107

+1 Bubzer Sep 2015 #259

1006 were asked about Obama. Only 392 Democrats & Leaners were polled about Democratic nomination stevenleser Sep 2015 #233

But that doesn't mean they didn't interview anyone UNDER fifty yes? MADem Sep 2015 #236

Correct. And we can make some assumptions based on... stevenleser Sep 2015 #239

so 176 when you combine the 2 n/a groups or 45% questionseverything Sep 2015 #254

Not if they went with census figures as they say they did. It's 176. nt stevenleser Sep 2015 #264

we know the numbers (approximately) for 2 columns questionseverything Sep 2015 #268

I think you are trying to back into the sample size in a way that may not be right. stevenleser Sep 2015 #269

are you saying the link i posted has wrong cut offs for moe? questionseverything Sep 2015 #270

Mine is also simple math and has the advantage of going by what they said they did. stevenleser Sep 2015 #271

for anyone that might be interested questionseverything Sep 2015 #272

It means they are using a best practice in terms of reporting results. Gormy Cuss Sep 2015 #274

Thank you!! That was a great explanation, it's what I MADem Sep 2015 #279

An overview on who was polled: DetlefK Sep 2015 #9

Shouldn't that make this poll skewed towards Bernie? SonderWoman Sep 2015 #14

Disproves that mythic meme, doesn't it. TM99 Sep 2015 #17

millenials are for bernie restorefreedom Sep 2015 #19

Millenials are split about 50/50 and... SonderWoman Sep 2015 #31

i think this time restorefreedom Sep 2015 #32

Compared to Obama? No n/t bobclark86 Sep 2015 #88

have you seen pics of his events? restorefreedom Sep 2015 #137

As the hillarians are quick to point out SwampG8r Sep 2015 #180

Those are interesting claims. Where are your links to back your position? Bubzer Sep 2015 #260

One poster is claiming that they were polled, but were under a very small error range. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Sep 2015 #51

No- skewed would be reporting the crosstabs for small cell sizes. Gormy Cuss Sep 2015 #277

Wrong - you need to read the methodology section again hack89 Sep 2015 #63

I think most of those demogs should skew toward Clinton Bucky Sep 2015 #190

This message was self-deleted by its author Agschmid Sep 2015 #198

Going to college does NOT mean smarter. It means more income, tho. Bucky Sep 2015 #215

The sub sample is too small to be broken out. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #10

Their conclusions are statistically irrelevant Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #12

They polled people under fifty. The sample was just too small to be broken out. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #28

that could mean 1 person over 50. crap poll roguevalley Sep 2015 #79

The numbers were significant enough to lower Hillary's numbers from the pnwmom Sep 2015 #225

Nonsense polling demwing Sep 2015 #82

What is the difference for practical application? The distinction seems to make no difference. TheKentuckian Sep 2015 #267

Finally! Someone who actually read the report. Thank you pnwmom Sep 2015 #224

Yep, this is not an uncommon thing in polling. nt stevenleser Sep 2015 #234

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #283

Makes you wonder what percentage of phone no's polled were land lines... cascadiance Sep 2015 #11

Page one gives you that Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #15

60% landlines- I barely know anyone who has a land line virtualobserver Sep 2015 #55

Guilty as charged. Is it a moral offense now to have a landline? Do I live an inferior lifestyle? WinkyDink Sep 2015 #57

not a moral offense to have a landline. Just shows how narrow the sampling is. That's all. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #60

The point is that a larger percentage of the younger population do not have land lines virtualobserver Sep 2015 #85

As somebody else has pointed out, 60% is fairly accurate mythology Sep 2015 #108

only fine as long as the sampling represents the underlying reality virtualobserver Sep 2015 #112

Yes, there are lots of surprised people when actual voting results don't match polling. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #118

No it is not okay to leave groups of people out of polls. I am 39 and don't have a landline. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #116

60% actually fits the overall statistics jeff47 Sep 2015 #78

it does, but younger people are unlikely to have land lines virtualobserver Sep 2015 #98

True. (nt) jeff47 Sep 2015 #102

60 / 40 in favor of land lines Elmer S. E. Dump Sep 2015 #100

That makes zero sense DCBob Sep 2015 #13

See Post 7 DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #22

The poll is worthless Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #25

Yep.. also see my last post. DCBob Sep 2015 #26

That poll is actually a little bearish for Ms. Clinton DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #34

Agreed... just noting that they also didn't include % of respondents under 50. DCBob Sep 2015 #35

They did. The sample was small to break out. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #43

In other words... demwing Sep 2015 #77

Let's throw out that poll and use the other polls of recent vintage: DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #83

Yup artislife Sep 2015 #167

You're right, and it's untrue. The OP thinks N/A means that no one was in pnwmom Sep 2015 #226

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #282

Pollsters are paid for their work randr Sep 2015 #16

Here is a link to the Real Clear Politics "Poll of Polls" DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #20

its all bullshit restorefreedom Sep 2015 #21

People under 50 were polled. LonePirate Sep 2015 #23

depends on what you call significant questionseverything Sep 2015 #65

exactly. You can skew a poll to make it say anything you want. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #103

Exactly! Thank you for getting it right. pnwmom Sep 2015 #227

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #288

The Sept 10th poll had same issue. DCBob Sep 2015 #24

someone is cooking the books dsc Sep 2015 #27

Oh that's rich JackInGreen Sep 2015 #30

it is. crap as usual. they are trying to reassert roguevalley Sep 2015 #84

Somebody's on the gravy train doing polls like this... PatrickforO Sep 2015 #33

So that's how they plan to keep Hill's numbers up. in_cog_ni_to Sep 2015 #36

+100%! Enthusiast Sep 2015 #263

Perception, perception, perception. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #37

Sssssssssshh INdemo Sep 2015 #38

Most trusted name in news, everybody! Betty Karlson Sep 2015 #39

AND Sample Size was 392 which yields +/- 5% error berni_mccoy Sep 2015 #40

Is that the poll where every Clintonite DU'er Pope Sweet Jesus Sep 2015 #41

I think it was a poll OF every Clintonite DUer ;) nt Erich Bloodaxe BSN Sep 2015 #52

I am wondering the same thing. I think it is. Hiraeth Sep 2015 #56

Page 6 clearly shows that they did poll from all age group Travis_0004 Sep 2015 #42

If we could resurrect Elisabeth Kübler-Ross she would say some folks are still in the Denial Stage. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #47

Ummm... please look again. kenn3d Sep 2015 #75

Biden's numbers are up. (n/t) OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #89

Has anyone declared "victory or defeat" based on this poll or any other single poll?? DCBob Sep 2015 #105

oh, so every other group just happened to have a sampling error larger than liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #53

Nope, not fishy. Common issue with polls when a small sample size is broken down further. nt stevenleser Sep 2015 #235

So under 50 were polled? n/t Skwmom Sep 2015 #44

Yes , they were, which is why all the overall results for Hillary were LOWER than the pnwmom Sep 2015 #228

It's a poll with an agenda. eom NorthCarolina Sep 2015 #48

I took a poll wilsonbooks Sep 2015 #58

Lie; they were polled, but their subgroup not broken out. treestar Sep 2015 #59

To paraphrase Upton Sinclair... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #64

Lol, the irony. BeanMusical Sep 2015 #93

I am probably the most literal person on this board and the person's whose real life persona... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #104

Love you too! BeanMusical Sep 2015 #106

Have a terrific week DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #110

Buh-bye, literal man! BeanMusical Sep 2015 #113

Sinclair said "salary," not world view. merrily Sep 2015 #136

S/he said it was a paraphrasing nt PosterChild Sep 2015 #230

This message was self-deleted by its author merrily Sep 2015 #265

That was not a paraphrase of what Sinclair said, though. merrily Sep 2015 #266

Thanks for the tip eom PosterChild Sep 2015 #273

Wrong - go read the methodology description again hack89 Sep 2015 #62

"Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs think Sep 2015 #72

So, basically, they still didn't poll very many people under 50. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #96

Yep. CNN chose not to show a breakdown by age group which is telling. think Sep 2015 #120

Of course they polled people under fifty, they just don't have the breakdown. DanTex Sep 2015 #71

Correct obviously. DCBob Sep 2015 #97

They were polled. The subsamples were too small to be significant. Mass Sep 2015 #73

" makes the results hardly reliable (same for their Republican poll)" riversedge Sep 2015 #94

Reminder fredamae Sep 2015 #87

Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2015 #90

I once was on a sports board and a poster wrote that Shaquille O'Neal ... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #92

That's how you keep the veil of legitimacy in polling Android3.14 Sep 2015 #101

Perspective: # of registered voters in the US demwing Sep 2015 #109

well, of course! they said "adults"! unblock Sep 2015 #111

Many (most?) polls are designed to influence opinion, not measure it. Scuba Sep 2015 #114

+1000000 liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #121

This is a poll of registered Democratic voters. It is pointing out that in this sampling there were still_one Sep 2015 #127

If Bernie is depending on the youth vote...he's screwed workinclasszero Sep 2015 #115

The poll was of REGISTERED Democratic voters, and what it implies is that Sander's supporters have still_one Sep 2015 #122

it could also mean no sanders supporters were contacted noiretextatique Sep 2015 #243

The key word is REGISTERED Democrats. Those who are not registered were not included in that series still_one Sep 2015 #117

The document says "N/A", if there were none it would say 0% George II Sep 2015 #123

I wonder if they polled DWS and all her DNC friends too? BeanMusical Sep 2015 #125

LOL! merrily Sep 2015 #126

Here's the key comment from the methodology.. DCBob Sep 2015 #130

The question regarding the Democratic candidates involved only registered Democratic voters still_one Sep 2015 #135

There is no way to rationalize leaving out millions of people in a poll. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #138

They were not left out. DCBob Sep 2015 #140

Why was the error rate so high? How many people over 50 did they poll versus people under 50? liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #143

Do you actually believe any pollster would conduct a poll leaving out half the population?? DCBob Sep 2015 #150

"Ridiculous" demwing Sep 2015 #156

THIS is the correct question demwing Sep 2015 #152

This thread is a good argument for mandatory college-level statistics courses. NuclearDem Sep 2015 #142

It means the MOE for the under 50 group was too high to include demwing Sep 2015 #145

Exactly. Thank you. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #151

Which is a common problem with random sampling. NuclearDem Sep 2015 #175

"Under 50 might make up 40% of the population." DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #192

Actually that's around 40% of REGISTERED voters. nt. druidity33 Sep 2015 #222

How many people in each age group were polled? liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #149

What it's a good argument for is that political operatives trying to skew results are going to be sabrina 1 Sep 2015 #247

Fuck the media Trajan Sep 2015 #146

in a way the poll is good news for bernie questionseverything Sep 2015 #158

Yes. This. nt stillwaiting Sep 2015 #216

I sure hope the younger folks are getting registered. Beartracks Sep 2015 #147

On page 6 of that PDF it shows a breakdown by age, starting with the 18-34 range. drm604 Sep 2015 #154

I'm sorry but you got it wrong DemocraticWing Sep 2015 #157

technically the op is wrong but a sample of 21 or 22 voters for the under 50 set is worthless questionseverything Sep 2015 #163

Wow. OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #177

They polled between 90 and 114 Democrats/Democratic leaners under 50 muriel_volestrangler Sep 2015 #159

Thank you for those numbers. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #161

disagree questionseverything Sep 2015 #173

No, that's not how sample errors work muriel_volestrangler Sep 2015 #203

look at page 11 in the poll questionseverything Sep 2015 #211

What you say in #173 doesn't make much sense muriel_volestrangler Sep 2015 #214

no time now but can we agree on the whole numbers the poll produced? questionseverything Sep 2015 #217

If you want - those numbers have nothing to do with how many under 50s were polled muriel_volestrangler Sep 2015 #219

25% of respondents were under 50 questionseverything Sep 2015 #253

See her #159 again and my #239 above where I show the numbers of stevenleser Sep 2015 #250

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #284

looks like if Joe Biden became VP for Senator Sanders, that 'team' could win the primary Sunlei Sep 2015 #160

BREAKING: "9 out of 10 Hillary Clinton supporters, support Hillary Clinton!" Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #166

...They also polled people with "aol.com" email addresses Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #168

Grossly lopsided sample, worthless poll. senz Sep 2015 #169

exactly. If they want to poll a certain demographic then say so. Don't make it sound like liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #170

How about this poll? DCBob Sep 2015 #172

if they only polled a couple dozen in one group and a couple hundred in another group then yes liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #176

Ok, so its not a conspiracy... just CNN is a crap polling outfit. DCBob Sep 2015 #178

You were making a point about Bernie supporters complaining about that poll and not another. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #182

Do you think CNN purposely skewed this poll? DCBob Sep 2015 #183

It is either a conspiracy or the entire polling system is screwed which is probably true which means liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #185

I have to admit I do not know why they were not able to poll enough under 50 respondents.. DCBob Sep 2015 #187

Yes, worthless. progressoid Sep 2015 #193

So throw out all CNN polls?? Seems this is their standard methodology. DCBob Sep 2015 #194

If that is their standard methodology, yes progressoid Sep 2015 #197

You still don't get it. DCBob Sep 2015 #200

I get it. Large error rate. Small sample size. progressoid Sep 2015 #204

I dont think you understand its weighted to deal with that.. DCBob Sep 2015 #205

Weighted for a small sample size. progressoid Sep 2015 #208

That I will agree with you on. DCBob Sep 2015 #209

Older people are more likely to be registered to vote. Young people can change the situation pnwmom Sep 2015 #229

Yes. CNN should be held to account for their shoddy methodology and presentation. senz Sep 2015 #195

CNN is one of the highest ranked polling outfits by 538 with an A- ranking. DCBob Sep 2015 #196

Well they screwed up here. As I said, it's either methodology or presentation or both. senz Sep 2015 #199

Not a screw up.. seems just the way they do polling.. DCBob Sep 2015 #201

Not correct. See #s 159 and 239 above. Nt stevenleser Sep 2015 #252

I don't think that's true. David__77 Sep 2015 #179

I think you have that correct.. DCBob Sep 2015 #181

Reweighting the groups makes sense to me. David__77 Sep 2015 #184

Thank you such a thoughtful and informative post. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #189

Yes, that is not clear to me either. DCBob Sep 2015 #191

Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2015 #186

"sample includes 606 interviews among landline respondents and 400 interviews among cell phone" Bucky Sep 2015 #188

Poll dancing again. Page 7 says it all. nt valerief Sep 2015 #202

They know how to cook em! Puzzledtraveller Sep 2015 #210

Under 50yr olds don't count according to this disclaimer. GeorgeGist Sep 2015 #212

Wrong. That is not what the disclaimer means. They obviously count pnwmom Sep 2015 #232

Shouldn't you be editing your OP... SidDithers Sep 2015 #213

Nothing to see here, move along.... blackspade Sep 2015 #220

K&R Segami Sep 2015 #221

Can't anyone read? That is not what these results say. pnwmom Sep 2015 #223

Page 8 - Hmm, no Republicans, nor anyone from the Northeast, Midwest, South, or West either progree Sep 2015 #231

Yep, OP didn't read what they linked to and made wild conspiratorial assumptions instead. nt stevenleser Sep 2015 #240

Well, sadly, that's standard DU. The really aggravating part is OP's refusal to fix the OP progree Sep 2015 #246

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #285

Hillarious! Thanks for posting! nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #286

That's the crosstab that should be a giant clue that "N/A" doesn't mean nobody interviewed. Gormy Cuss Sep 2015 #278

I suspect the GOP primary polls are much worst. rladdi Sep 2015 #248

LOL! There's going to be a lot of under 50 people saying Gman Sep 2015 #255

face palm n/t PatrynXX Sep 2015 #257

I was watching CNN today (at the gym—and I say that because I NEVER watch it at home)... C Moon Sep 2015 #261

That seems fair. Enthusiast Sep 2015 #262

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #281