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Response to CobaltBlue (Reply #19)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 04:26 PM

24. Your points are cool, but not really valid...

What Woodrow Wilson did 100 years ago is not relevant to this election. Each election acts in a vacuum, really, and what happens in one election doesn't necessarily hold true for the next.

As for Obama winning without winning Florida & Ohio - I never said he would. I said he could theoretically lose either (not both) and still win the presidency - Bush couldn't. Had Bush lost Ohio in '04, Kerry would've won. Likewise, had Bush lost Florida in '04, Kerry would've won. Obama can lose Florida and still win. He can lose Ohio and still win. Hell, and this is unlikely, he can lose both and still win. It's not my prediction, of course, just saying what can and cannot happen.

What you need to do is step back and realize things change and part of that change is the electoral college. Prior to '92, California was a Republican-leaning swing state & Vermont and New Hampshire rarely, if ever, voted Democratic.

Now? All three are solid Democratic states. Just because history says one thing doesn't mean today won't be about the other. In reality, Obama's lead in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia kind of put less weight on states like Florida & Ohio - who both Gore & Kerry needed to win in '04 to have a chance at claiming the presidency. This electoral map is far more diverse than anything Kerry faced four years ago. Because of that, Obama's path to victory is far bigger than Romney's and because of that, the odds of him having a landslide electoral college win is huge, as well.

Just look at the election simulation votes based on state polls:


Obama wins an average of 89% of the time and with more than 300 electoral votes in the average, mean and most common outcome.

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Arrow 27 replies Author Time Post
DCBob Jul 2012 OP
leveymg Jul 2012 #1
unblock Jul 2012 #2
DCBob Jul 2012 #3
leveymg Jul 2012 #5
DCBob Jul 2012 #7
leveymg Jul 2012 #11
freshwest Jul 2012 #26
Demit Jul 2012 #4
DCBob Jul 2012 #6
WI_DEM Jul 2012 #8
BarbaRosa Jul 2012 #9
Wounded Bear Jul 2012 #10
rufus dog Jul 2012 #12
Odin2005 Jul 2012 #13
graywarrior Jul 2012 #14
CobaltBlue Jul 2012 #15
EmeraldCityGrl Jul 2012 #16
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #17
DCBob Jul 2012 #18
CobaltBlue Jul 2012 #19
LineLineLineNew Reply Your points are cool, but not really valid...
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #24
Xyzse Jul 2012 #20
surrealAmerican Jul 2012 #21
Xyzse Jul 2012 #22
Comrade_McKenzie Jul 2012 #23
Robbins Jul 2012 #25
Kalium Sep 2012 #27
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