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2016 Postmortem

In reply to the discussion: If Biden enters the race: [View all]
 

Flying Squirrel

(3,041 posts)
7. Hmmmmm I may have to pick "uncertain"...
Fri Sep 11, 2015, 02:05 PM
Sep 2015

The VP is always the odds-on favorite to win, historically. It would definitely hurt Hillary's chances. (Note the defensive responses from Hillary supporters, which would indicate that the possibility worries them). Probably hurts O'Malley because that sucks away any chance for him to gain publicity and exposure. So the question is, does whatever hurts Hillary and O'Malley help Bernie?

Obviously if Biden wins the nomination it hurts all three. If he doesn't win, by the time he dropped out it would be too late for O'Malley. If Biden entered, I think he'd take more away from Hillary than Bernie. This would strengthen Bernie in the short term. If Biden subsequently had to drop out, I would expect this would be due to unexpected strength from Bernie, not Hillary.

So, it either hurts all three or it hurts Hillary and O'Malley. Politics is very emotional and I see Bernie supporters as being more invested than Biden supporters, so I'd give the edge to Bernie.

(Option 3)

If Biden enters the race: [View all] Flying Squirrel Sep 2015 OP
Changes my choice..... daleanime Sep 2015 #1
He doesn't enter the race AgingAmerican Sep 2015 #2
That's probably the most likely situation. BillZBubb Sep 2015 #28
It would depend on the outcome. gateley Sep 2015 #3
Hmmmmm I may have to pick "uncertain"... Flying Squirrel Sep 2015 #7
Thanks, I'll chew on that for a while. gateley Sep 2015 #9
Hillary still wins. nt onehandle Sep 2015 #4
Nobody Think Biden Can Win? On the Road Sep 2015 #5
I think Biden could win. Flying Squirrel Sep 2015 #11
He is not entering the race. Maedhros Sep 2015 #6
You may be right -- gateley Sep 2015 #12
Well of course I don't have any special insight into Biden's thoughts. Maedhros Sep 2015 #14
Nobody is asking you to vote for Biden -- gateley Sep 2015 #18
Wow. Touchy. [n/t] Maedhros Sep 2015 #21
Yeah, I am, and I apologize. gateley Sep 2015 #23
No worries. It's easy to be on edge these days. Maedhros Sep 2015 #24
Thank you. gateley Sep 2015 #27
Welcome back gateley! Glad you're here... haikugal Sep 2015 #29
Hiya, haikugal!! gateley Sep 2015 #44
I don't think he will run. MineralMan Sep 2015 #8
Helps Bernie, Hurts Hillary, O'Malley stays the same unless he can do something to Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #10
He'd hurt everyone. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #13
It's also integrity vs..Well, let's just say ignoring the elephant in the room won't make it go away Skwmom Sep 2015 #17
As centrist as Obama has been... Garrett78 Sep 2015 #36
No amount of pressure will keep Clinton from delivering on her promises to her big money backers. Skwmom Sep 2015 #40
I'm not counting Bernie out -- but I agree it might be easier for gateley Sep 2015 #45
Like Bernie said it's Joe's decision. Who really knows... n/t Skwmom Sep 2015 #15
Too many factors going on in this race. Hillary's supporters are libdem4life Sep 2015 #16
I'm interested to see how Bernie fares when he does "introduce himself to the country" gateley Sep 2015 #19
Thus far he's batting 1,000. n/t libdem4life Sep 2015 #20
Hurts them all. elleng Sep 2015 #22
I agree. Puzzledtraveller Sep 2015 #26
I fear you may be right, pal. gateley Sep 2015 #31
I think Biden would win if he were to enter Puzzledtraveller Sep 2015 #25
I agree. elleng Sep 2015 #30
If you're referring to Bernie, I agree. gateley Sep 2015 #32
On one hand, he might pull those who don't want another Clinton gateley Sep 2015 #34
What would I like to see happen? Biden enters the race, Obama supports him, Hillary tanks tularetom Sep 2015 #33
So either way Bernie nabs the nom? gateley Sep 2015 #35
Was that what I said? Don't think so tularetom Sep 2015 #37
Ah... Thanks for the clarification. gateley Sep 2015 #38
You know what - I've known about Bernie for a long time because of Tom Hartmann tularetom Sep 2015 #41
For years people have been saying they're tired of politics as usual, gateley Sep 2015 #42
probably cuts into each one somewhat restorefreedom Sep 2015 #39
Joe is actually more liberal than any of them (I'm talking Clinton, Obama, etc.) gateley Sep 2015 #43
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