At this moment what do you think Bernies chances of winning the nomination are?

[CoffeeCat]

28. He's following the a similar trajectory as Obama (but slightly better)

Sanders is behind Clinton by seven points, currently, in Iowa. At this same point in the run up to the 2008 Iowa caucuses--Obama was not doing as well against Clinton.

That is key. It's significant. Obama won the Iowa caucuses--but Sanders is doing better than Obama was.

I think Sanders is on a trajectory to obliterate Clinton's campaign. I think that is why the Biden run has been floated as a trial balloon. Hillary has lost 20 points in Iowa since May. This is incredibly significant, because the polls in these early primary states matter the most. This is where the campaigns are in full swing--with ads, public appearances, and full marketing campaigns locked and loaded.

That is revealing--for a candidate to put all of their fire power behind their campaign--and to lose 20 points to a candidate who is largely being ignored by the media.

I think the idea of Biden running is being floated --to gage how his candidacy might affect the Dem numbers. Would he take away from Clinton and weaken her further OR would Biden siphon off liberal-base votes from Sanders and prop up Clinton? Those questions are still unanswered. The DNC wants one of their own in the White House, and definitely not Sanders, that is clear.

The trajectory of this race, especially when it comes to Clinton dynamics, are almost identical to the 2008 primary. Clinton was (in 2007-2008) winning handily in national polls. She looked unbeatable. And when you looked at polls in states with later primaries, she was winning by large margins. However, as the campaigning heated up in states with impending primaries--Clinton's numbers began to sink with her challenger (Obama) gaining. It appears, at least in Iowa and NH, that we're seeing a replay of those exact dynamics.

For this to happen again--with a candidate like Sanders, who is ignored by the media--is really telling. I don't think the voting states are buying her inevitability. I think this reveals just how weak and vulnerable the Clinton candidacy is.

I'm in Iowa and I can tell you that there is very little enthusiasm for her. When you run again--you're either going to have renewed enthusiasm among the electorate or a "Oh, it's you again" fatigue surrounding the candidate. I definitely feel the latter, when it comes to Clinton--among the public.

The electorate has aged and fewer younger voters are impressed with her, especially with Sanders in the mix, a candidate who appeals to the base and to younger supporters.

Just my take on things...