2016 Postmortem

ieoeja

(9,748 posts)

18. Rally crowds is his advantage in Iowa.

Tue Sep 8, 2015, 05:02 PM

Sep 2015

Con: He was not a Democrat. A lot of party officials are not going to like him jumping to the head of the line and are going to caucus against him for that reason. And I am betting that a lot of people go along with the local party officials whom they know and trust.

Pro: The enthusiasm he generates.

Con: The enthusiasm he generates. Pushy Deaniacs allegedly turned off older caucus goers in 2004.

I think he appeals better to Iowans. While I think the process favors Hillary.

If Hillary loses I think she runs the risk of being viewed as a non-viable candidate. Viability is a big issue with a lot of primary voters. Hillary starts out losing again, a lot of voters are going to decide she is not viable and look elsewhere for someone they think can win.

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At this moment what do you think Bernies chances of winning the nomination are? [View all] Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 OP

Not high, but better than before and improving whatthehey Sep 2015 #1

I'm more optimistic. Went from longshot to maybe. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #2

Bernie has a considerably higher upside hifiguy Sep 2015 #17

50/50 this far out. HooptieWagon Sep 2015 #3

I agree. I think he has a pretty good shot against the machine. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #5

At this point, I'd say 35 - 40 percent. Armstead Sep 2015 #4

agreed Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #31

Gotta go 90% Half-Century Man Sep 2015 #6

I wouldn't predict until after the first debate. Who knows, O'Malley could do such a great job seaglass Sep 2015 #7

That's why I said "at the moment". Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #8

OK, I don't have any evidence to predict now, only feelings and that seems like a stupid basis seaglass Sep 2015 #9

That's fine. I'm not chiding you. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #10

But Sanders isn't the ABH candidate. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #19

Yes. It's so important to stress that Bernie's support is overwhelmingly positive RufusTFirefly Sep 2015 #26

25% chance of winning IA; 40% chance of winning NH; 10% chance of winning SC; downhill from there brooklynite Sep 2015 #11

You could be right. But, I don't think so. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #13

His challenge is turning rally crowds and polling into actual votes... brooklynite Sep 2015 #16

Rally crowds is his advantage in Iowa. ieoeja Sep 2015 #18

...and this is precisely my point. brooklynite Sep 2015 #21

Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2015 #25

50% Le Taz Hot Sep 2015 #12

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Mahatma Gandhi Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #14

That same argument was used in 2008 Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #32

100% sure hell win, but voted 90% due to the establishments Diebold advantage. NorthCarolina Sep 2015 #15

1% maybe? Garrett78 Sep 2015 #20

If his chances weren't good, they wouldn't spend so much effort and money Skwmom Sep 2015 #22

But that effort and money... Garrett78 Sep 2015 #23

A Corporate Democrat, a Corporate Republican - they deliver the same results. Skwmom Sep 2015 #24

Not precisely the same results. And voting still matters. But... Garrett78 Sep 2015 #29

So, President Gore would have been the exact same as President Bush? Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #35

Marginally better than Andre Berto's chances of upsetting Floyd Mayweather this Saturday. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #27

He's following the a similar trajectory as Obama (but slightly better) CoffeeCat Sep 2015 #28

Obama won states that Sanders won't win. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #34

Yes, but Clinton had those same enormous national leads... CoffeeCat Sep 2015 #40

Obama was an upcoming rock star. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #42

It will be interesting to see what media does if Bernie marlakay Sep 2015 #41

My feelings is that Bernie will be our next President madokie Sep 2015 #30

About 10%. I wish I could give better odds. Vattel Sep 2015 #33

the GOPers will continue the McCarthyist campaign against HRC in Hopes that Bernie will be nominated Bill USA Sep 2015 #36

1-5% taught_me_patience Sep 2015 #37

Yep. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #38

37.25% and rising. TheKentuckian Sep 2015 #39