Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

12. But the same logic works for all polls then

Reply to Fawke Em (Reply #9)

Tue Aug 11, 2015, 10:49 AM

Aug 2015

And you can see that as the national race has tightened slightly, state races have also tightened slightly. At this stage, national polling is about as useful as counting up votes from each individual state that has polled to figure out the race.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

25 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Is there a recent poll showing Sanders trailing Hillary by only 39-43? I thought [View all] KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 OP

Sounds like an outlier NH poll. She still leads in the upper 40s, nationally. onehandle Aug 2015 #1

Thank you for replying. Hmm, maybe I was engaged in a little wishful thinking. Could swear KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #3

Yes, you are correct, I believe it was a Quinniapic poll showing Sanders to be now only sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #13

We don't vote for presidents nationally. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #5

There is almost a 1 to 1 correlation between national polling and national results Godhumor Aug 2015 #7

Not this early out, though. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #9

But the same logic works for all polls then Godhumor Aug 2015 #12

The last quinniapic poll showed Sanders now only 5 points behind Hillary in a state where sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #14

In which case national polling will reflect that change Godhumor Aug 2015 #18

That question is better applies to Hillary. Bernie is already attracting people from across sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #23

Look at that NH poll again. It's the aggregate of 3 polls. hedda_foil Aug 2015 #17

Gravis is the individual poll the OP is referencing Godhumor Aug 2015 #19

The aggregate spread is not that wide. The widest margin is Hillary+10. hedda_foil Aug 2015 #24

I'm not discrediting anything. He asked for which poll is 39-43. Gravis is 39-43 Godhumor Aug 2015 #25

The running avg of Nat'l polls at RCP has Clinton up ~35% HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #2

Thanks for replying. I may have been engaged in some wishful thinking. I neglected KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #4

Perhaps New Hampshire? SonderWoman Aug 2015 #6

The poll is the Gravis Marketing poll for NH Godhumor Aug 2015 #8

Again, that is an aggregate of 3 polls of which Gravis is one. hedda_foil Aug 2015 #20

No, Gravis is the individual poll the OP referenced. The aggregate spread is wider Godhumor Aug 2015 #22

Oregon. DCBob Aug 2015 #10

Yeah, best to ignore that one Godhumor Aug 2015 #11

Most of them are unscientific now since they haven't caught up with tech and sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #15

No, the Oregon poll was the statistical definition of unscientific Godhumor Aug 2015 #21

Yeah, you have the link now. NH Poll. Adrahil Aug 2015 #16