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Sat Aug 30, 2014, 02:03 PM

Senate Dems outperforming expectations ... [View all]

per Sam Wang, whose track record is even better than Nate Silver's.


Iíve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts youíll find elsewhere: NYTís The Upshot, Washington Postís The Monkey Cage, ESPNís FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than todayís PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability.

Today I will show that in most cases, added assumptions (i.e. special sauce) have led the media organizations to different win probabilities Ė which I currently believe are wrong. Iíll then outline the subtle but important implications for a November prediction.

Keeping my fingers crossed ...

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Reply Senate Dems outperforming expectations ... [View all]
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 OP
cilla4progress Aug 2014 #1
yeoman6987 Aug 2014 #2
davidpdx Aug 2014 #5
MBS Aug 2014 #3
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 #4
Cosmocat Aug 2014 #6
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 #7