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Sat Aug 30, 2014, 02:03 PM

Senate Dems outperforming expectations ... [View all]

per Sam Wang, whose track record is even better than Nate Silver's.

http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/

Iíve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts youíll find elsewhere: NYTís The Upshot, Washington Postís The Monkey Cage, ESPNís FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than todayís PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability.

Today I will show that in most cases, added assumptions (i.e. special sauce) have led the media organizations to different win probabilities Ė which I currently believe are wrong. Iíll then outline the subtle but important implications for a November prediction.


Keeping my fingers crossed ...

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Reply Senate Dems outperforming expectations ... [View all]
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 OP
cilla4progress Aug 2014 #1
yeoman6987 Aug 2014 #2
davidpdx Aug 2014 #5
MBS Aug 2014 #3
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 #4
Cosmocat Aug 2014 #6
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 #7