My bet is it won"t be a close election

[CobaltBlue]

31. My bet: traditional pattern will hold

In 2008, over 130 million votes were cast for president of the United States. The White House flipped from Republican to Democratic as George W. Bush insured John McCain's loss to Barack Obama. Raw votes margin was an est. 9.5 million. Obama received 52.92%; McCain generated 45.66%. Margin in the popular voter: D+7.26.

Since the 1990s, Republicans haven't won the presidency with a margin exceeding George W. Bush's R+2.46 (historically the lowest for a [re-elected] incumbent) from 2004. He did not win the popular vote in 2000.

The Republicans' victories in the 1970s and 1980s were a minimum national margin of R+7.73 (for 1988 George Bush) and 426 electoral votes (1988 Bush). The base for the party was going to the south. The north was underperforming (or at least trending away from the GOP).

In 1988, when Bush won Ronald Reagan's third term, he underperformed in states that used to be the base for the GOP. And they are among the Top 10 in population: No. 1 California (R+3.57), No. 5 Pennsylvania (R+2.32), and No. 6 Illinois (R+2.08). Michigan was, in that election, No. 1 for closely reflecting the percentage of his popular vote: R+7.90, a spread of just 0.17 (which helps to explain why, even to this day, Mich. is presumed by too many to be a battleground when, in reality, it moved over to base state status for the Democratic Party).

The underperformances in those states made it real easy for Bill Clinton to flip them, plus likeminded vote states (such as New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine), over to the Democratic Party. Regularly. In fact, those states — along with ex-bellwether Delaware, Maryland, and Vermont (which voted for all GOPs from 1856 to 1988 except for 1964 Barry Goldwater) — have not once voted for a Republican presidential candidate. Nor have the 1988 Democratic pickups, for Michael Dukakais, that were — along with his home state of Massachusetts — Hawaii (which has been GOP only for 49-state landslide re-elections of 1972 Richard Nixon and 1984 Reagan), New York, Oregon, Rhode Island (voting the same since 1960 as Obama's birth state), and Washington. And since 1992, one of the other states — Iowa — has been remarkable in reflecting in margins at a statewide level vs. the national outcome.

So, all this means is the following: structurally, the Democrats, not the Republicans, have the electoral advantage: states that haven't voted for a GOP once since the 1980s (add to the list Minnesota and, Democratic in all since first participation in 1964, District of Columbia) add up to 242 electoral votes. (Rendering the GOP nowadays unable to reach 300, let alone 400, in the Electoral College.) Add three states that had carried for Bush just once (and whose margins tilt Democratic): Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), and New Mexico (5). That's a total of 257 electoral votes, down from the 2000s allocation of 264. But along with bellwether N.M., rising bellwether Ia., consider that Virginia and Colorado may be the new big bellwether states on the block. 2008 pickups were as follows: Va. was D+6.30. Colo was 8.95. They were Nos. 1 and 2 in closely mirroring Obama's national outcome of D+7.26. Ia., also a pickup, was D+9.54, completing the trio most close in margins with state vs. national outcomes. All three highly likely will vote again for the presidential winner of the 2012 contest. And N.H., at D+9.61, likely will do so as well.

Looking at past presidential elections which resulted in an incumbent winning re-election: all but 1916 Woodrow Wilson increased their score in the Electoral College. Wilson, in 1912: 435 (of available 531). Wilson, in 1916: 277. Back then the Republicans imploded in 1912, with party nod battle that brewed between incumbent William Howard Taft and predecessor Teddy Roosevelt. Taft won in 1908; Teddy four years earlier. Once it was over, Taft was reduced to just two of his 1908 states for carriage in 1912: Utah and Vermont. Teddy flipped six of Taft's 1908 states into his Progressive Party column: California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Washington. Wilson won all 1908 states which carried for losing Democrat William Jennings Bryan … and then flipped all others which had voted for 1908 Taft. As a bonus: New Mexico and Arizona, brand new states (Nos. 47 and 48), voted for the first time and carried for Wilson. All 1916, when Wilson was nearly unseated, meant was that the Republicans stabilized and competed.

I believe traditional voting patterns will remain. If Mitt Romney unseats Barack Obama, he would carry all states in the column of 2008's losing Republican, John McCain, and then string together victory with Va., with Colo., with Ia., and other 2008 Obama/Democratic pickups: New Mexico (D+15.13), Nevada (D+12.55), Ohio (D+4.59), Florida (D+2.81), Indiana (D+1.03), and North Carolina (D+0.33). Add to it N.H., a John Kerry/Obama state. And include Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, since redrawn, which Obama flipped at D+1.19. (It votes like Indiana.)

If Obama wins re-election, it's a matter of two scenarios: Does he become the fifth two-term winner, since we've been on a Republican-vs.-Democratic party system, not to give up a single state from his first election? (Applicable were 1864 Abraham Lincoln; 1936 Franklin Roosevelt; 1972 Richard Nixon; 1984 Ronald Reagan.) Or does he engage in a little trading of colors? Give up, say, one his nine pickups and win over at least two from 2008 Team Red? If that is the case, I'd say N.C. is a better bet to hold than Ind. Why? Ind. votes like Neb. #02, Nebraska statewide, Kansas, and both North Dakota and South Dakota. In fact, from 1920 to 2004, the five voted the same. Usually with no greater than a 10-point margin between Ind. and most of those other four in the plains. N.C., on the other hand, voted for all winning Democrats except for 1990s Bill Clinton. And the demographics may suggest there it, along with Va., are picking up the slack for former bellwether states Tennessee and Kentucky. Ohio, on the other hand, is the nation's longest-running bellwether state … and Florida votes just like it.

Okay, so Ind. and Nebraska would end up on Team Red for Mitt Romney.

For the pickups going to Team Blue: choose a minimum of two of the following four between Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. Why? Margins, from 2008, but also the gender voting results. Of Obama's 28 states, he carried males along with females in 25. (The exceptions: Colorado, nearly a statistical tie; Ind.; and N.C.) But of the 22 states that held for McCain, only his home state are among the four in which he won both genders. But his performance with men was his second weakest among the holds (45% voted for Obama) compared to declining bellwether Mo. (48% voted for Obama). Ariz.'s men were one point better than Mont. (44% voted for Obama). And Obama won over females in Ga. (54%; males were 40%); Mont. (51%); and Mo. (50%).

Electoral vote increase: start off with 365 electoral votes but reallocate them (applicable for Elections 2012, 2016, 2020) to 359. Lose Ind. and Neb. #02. That's 347. Win over Ariz. (11) and Ga. (16), for 374. Or win over Mo. and Ga., for 373. Or win over Mont., in addition to two of the other three, for upper-370s. (Mo. and Mont. have incumbent, freshman Senate Democrats — Claire McCaskill and Jon Tester — trying to win second terms. I imagine Obama will help them … and try to help himself to flip both states.)

Plenty of speculation will be offered over the next six [plus] months. (Mine, below, are the minimum levels for both the incumbent and challenger.)

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qfispbr0jauarskuq