Two More: Josh Putnam and Desart (Reply #4)

In the discussion thread: Nerd War - Nate Silver v. Sam Wang v. Drew Linzer - Electoral Vote Projection (11/6/16) [View all]

Response to Cha (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 12:19 PM

TomCADem (16,331 posts)

4. Two More: Josh Putnam and Desart

Given the wide disparity among the various quants, it will be interesting who among them is closest to the final electoral vote count. Nate Silver has been very cautious about Hillary Clinton's chances, which may be an over correction to his insistence during the summer that there was no way Trump would win the RNC primary.

Josh Putnam (Frontloading HQ) - http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
Hillary Clinton: 340
Donald Trump: 198

Desart (Utah Valley) - http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/november.html
Hillary Clinton: 347
Donald Trump: 191

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Replies to this discussion thread

21 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nerd War - Nate Silver v. Sam Wang v. Drew Linzer - Electoral Vote Projection (11/6/16) [View all]	TomCADem	Nov 2016	OP
Hadn't heard of Drew Linzer.. I already like Sam!	Cha	Nov 2016	#1
Two More: Josh Putnam and Desart	TomCADem	Nov 2016	#4
Thank you!	Cha	Nov 2016	#11
Also, Natalie Jackson from Huffington Post	TomCADem	Nov 2016	#5
HuffPo - Showing A Last Minute Tightening of the Face and Greater Uncertainty	TomCADem	Nov 2016	#8
Mahalo, Tom!	Cha	Nov 2016	#12
LA Times - "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes."	TomCADem	Nov 2016	#15
I HOPE they are Correct!	Cha	Nov 2016	#16
Benchmark Politics	jaceaf	Nov 2016	#6
378	Rex	Nov 2016	#7
I reached up some time ago and pulled a card	Hortensis	Nov 2016	#10
Comey's November Surprise probably helped Wang and Linzer	andym	Nov 2016	#9
Wednesday will be full of "Why our models failed to predict this landslide"	ThoughtCriminal	Nov 2016	#13
Politico - Nate Silver rages at Huffington Post editor in 14-part tweetstorm	TomCADem	Nov 2016	#14
4. I predict an under count of the massive/historic Hispanic turnout	workinclasszero	Nov 2016	#19
Y'know...this is the kind of argument I like!	Maeve	Nov 2016	#17
Nate may need to tweek his model re: weights, but he is helping drive dems to the polls	bushisanidiot	Nov 2016	#18
interesting, thanks for posting.	KittyWampus	Nov 2016	#20
All three are low	Egnever	Nov 2016	#22
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN - November 7th Update	TomCADem	Nov 2016	#23
Going 321 instead of 322 because of the elector in Washington State who said she would not vote for	Quixote1818	Nov 2016	#26

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