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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 10:01 AM

1. Nate is unskewing the state polls, maybe dangerous

Nate is "adjusting" a Clinton up 3 state poll to Trump plus 1, say, because a more recent national poll shows Trump gaining support. He says data shows this leads to a more accurate prediction of the state result. Nate Cohn says Silver is double counting the change whatever that means.

So Silver has same National lead as the others but he has "adjusted" the state polls toward Trump. This changes the electoral college count compared to others.

Maybe we should average the aggregators.

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